# Leigh Leopards v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Play-off Eliminators 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 26 – 10 Wakefield Trinity

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 81% / Wakefield Trinity 19% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 26 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Keanan Brand (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Isaac Liu (23'), Josh Charnley (27' Tipped ⚡), Alec Tuitavake (61') · Wakefield Trinity: Jayden Myers (43'), Cameron Scott (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 81% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Play-off Eliminators 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Leigh Leopards 26–10 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Play-off Eliminators at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards beat Wakefield Trinity 26–10 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Leigh Leopards led 18–0 at half-time and held on.

Keanan Brand opened the scoring; Leigh Leopards crossed through Keanan Brand, Isaac Liu, Josh Charnley and Alec Tuitavake; Wakefield Trinity scored through Jayden Myers and Cameron Scott.

Leigh Leopards were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to 13. Leigh Leopards were sharper in attack, breaking the line 5 times to 2 and busting 41 tackles. Wakefield Trinity held the discipline edge, conceding 1 penalty to 2.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,435** | Run metres | 1,019 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 33 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **5** | Errors | 13 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 5 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 16 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · Wakefield Trinity 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 81.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 81% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 120 ELO points clear, 1685 to 1566. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leigh Leopards to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 35.2pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 1316.8m | Run Metres | 1174.6m |
| 7.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 265.0 | Tackles | 288.4 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 35.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R23 L · R24 W · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 56% ✗ |
| 2026 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 19 | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards 62% ✗ |
| 2026 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 18 – 14 | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 20 – 24 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Leigh Leopards | 14 – 40 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Brand, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 1.59/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 6th) | 2.07/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 1.15/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 6th) | 1.07/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 8 | 17 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 97m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 34 | 50 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 592m/g | 418m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.7/g | 11.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 12 | 24 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 367m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 94.6% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Wingers 1.19/g (lg 0.9) +32%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0% · Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 4 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.98 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 16 in 24g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·3·1) | 1/2g | 10/15g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.49 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.64 AI 17% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/11g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 11 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 13/24g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 7 in 18g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 12/13g | 28/35g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.91 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 4 in 27g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 8/39g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 4/33g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/7g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 9/32g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/32g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 6/25g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.28 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 6 in 25g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 4/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 5% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 4/33g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 61' |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 4 in 27g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/36g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 4/18g | 5/22g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.47 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 6 in 22g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 29% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 7 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.44 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.46 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 11 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 6/8g | 2/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.17 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 5 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 3/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 8 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Ky Rodwell | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Seth Nikotemo | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1685 · Wakefield Trinity 1566 · ELO difference: 120 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r28-leigh-leopards-v-wakefield-trinity
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)