# Leeds Rhinos v St Helens — Super League Play-off Eliminators 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 14 – 16 St Helens

_St Helens surge back to march past Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 70% / St Helens 30% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 27 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Chris Hankinson (10' 1st), James McDonnell (26') · St Helens: Jonny Lomax (22'), Jonathan Bennison (74'), Shane Wright (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 70% | Lost |
| St Helens | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Play-off Eliminators 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 14–16 St Helens in Super League Play-off Eliminators at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens edged Leeds Rhinos 16–14 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Trailing 12–6 at half-time, St Helens flipped the game after the break.

Chris Hankinson opened the scoring; Leeds Rhinos crossed through Chris Hankinson and James McDonnell; St Helens scored through Jonny Lomax, Jonathan Bennison and Shane Wright.

St Helens held the discipline edge, conceding 3 penalties to 7. In a 2-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,178** | Run metres | 1,140 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **49** | Tackle busts | 46 |
| 13 | Offloads | **17** |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

St Helens defied the model's 70% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.8 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. St Helens trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–16. A tough result for the model, all 15 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (53/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 7 · St Helens 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 69.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 5 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 70% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 46 ELO points clear, 1666 to 1620. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 36. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leeds Rhinos to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 1235.8m | Run Metres | 1134.0m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 1.8 |
| 283.8 | Tackles | 273.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L | 20.4 |
| St Helens | R23 W · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 W | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | St Helens | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 24 – 16 | St Helens | St Helens 53% ✗ |
| 2025 | R18 | Leeds Rhinos | 0 – 6 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | St Helens | 18 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | St Helens | 4 – 17 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.19 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 3rd there (0.59 conceded/game). Key man: Newman, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 1st there (0.44 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.7/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.59/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.07/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.81/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.63/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.56/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.19/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 9 | 17 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 168m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 92.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 32 | 72 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 569m/g | 513m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.2/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 84.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 5 | 13 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 329m/g | 309m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.4) -8% · Wingers 0.68/g (lg 0.9) -24% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 9 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/24g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.39 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.10 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/13g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 11 in 27g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 11/24g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.56 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 16/23g | 10/20g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.79 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 10 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 6/16g | 5/14g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.57 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.30 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 7 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/21g | 5/13g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.05 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 7 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 8/23g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.44 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 8 in 27g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/25g | 16% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 6 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/22g | 3/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | James Bentley | INT | 3 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 6 in 27g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/13g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harry Robertson | FB | 12 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 42% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Shane Wright | WG | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 15 in 27g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 4 | Daryl Clark | CE | 4 in 24g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/25g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | George Delaney | WG | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 6 | Deon Cross | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.28 AI 23% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $33.32 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jack Welsby | HB | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Jonny Lomax | PR | 3 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 9 | Curtis Sironen | HK | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | James Bell | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Moses Mbye | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Walmsley | 2R | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/19g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Mark Percival | LK | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.46 AI 22% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $34.58 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | Matt Whitley | INT | 3 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Lees | INT | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jon Bennison | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 74' |
| 17 | Morgan Knowles | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1666 · St Helens 1620 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)