# Wigan Warriors v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 22 – 6 Leeds Rhinos

_Wigan Warriors go to war with Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 68% / Leeds Rhinos 32% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Abbas Miski (19' 1st Tipped 🎯), Bevan French (24'), Bevan French (42'), Jake Wardle (47') · Leeds Rhinos: Chris Hankinson (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 68% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Wigan Warriors 22–6 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 27 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors beat Leeds Rhinos 22–6 at The Brick Community Stadium. Wigan Warriors led 12–0 at half-time and held on.

Abbas Miski opened the scoring; Wigan Warriors crossed through Abbas Miski, Bevan French (2) and Jake Wardle; Leeds Rhinos scored through Chris Hankinson.

Leeds Rhinos were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 7 times to 11. Wigan Warriors were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 3 and busting 42 tackles. Wigan Warriors held the discipline edge, conceding 4 penalties to 6.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| **1,354** | Run metres | 1,082 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **42** | Tackle busts | 35 |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 11 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 28 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 4 · Leeds Rhinos 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 68.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — model probability 68.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 68.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 68% to see off Leeds Rhinos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 59 ELO points clear, 1752 to 1694.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Wigan Warriors to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 34.0pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Conceded | 5.6pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Margin | 26.4pts |
| 1206.2m | Run Metres | 1319.6m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 276.6 | Tackles | 259.2 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W | 34.0 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R5 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Leeds Rhinos | 30 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 4th there (0.77 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 24 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.46 conceded/game). Key man: Newman, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.46/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 7th) | 0.73/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.58/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.85/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.23/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.23/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.42/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 7 | 15 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 137m/g | 144m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 92.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 85 · 24 | 50 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 505m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 19.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 84.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 12 | 18 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 347m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.4) -13%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.26) -19% · Props 0.08/g (lg 0.13) -38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 24 in 24g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·2) | 4/7g | 37/45g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.89 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·2) | 3/4g | 32/30g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.82 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/4g | 7/21g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 14 in 25g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/10g | 20/41g | 40% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 15 in 24g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·2) | 6/12g | 48/61g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.28 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.26 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 12/61g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 48/45g | 54% | — | 🏉 24' 42' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/58g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/36g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 21/59g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 7 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/31g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 5/25g | 14% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Hankinson | FB | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.54 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 11 in 26g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.34 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Kallum Watkins | CE | 6 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/20g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Max Simpson | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 7 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.23 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 8 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | James Bentley | INT | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 6 in 26g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.69 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Joe Shorrocks | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/28g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1752 · Leeds Rhinos 1694 · ELO difference: 59 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)