# St Helens v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 26 – 24 Castleford Tigers

_St Helens march in over Castleford Tigers in a tight one._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 82% / Castleford Tigers 18% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Noah Stephens (3' 1st), Kyle Feldt (31' Tipped ⚡), James Bell (35'), Kyle Feldt (44' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Bennison (63' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: Will Tate (8' Tipped ⚡), Will Tate (27' Tipped ⚡), Sam Wood (73'), Will Tate (76' Tipped ⚡), Liam Horne (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 82% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

St Helens 26–24 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 27 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens edged Castleford Tigers 26–24 at The BrewDog Stadium. St Helens led 16–10 at half-time and held on.

Noah Stephens opened the scoring; St Helens crossed through Noah Stephens, Kyle Feldt (2), James Bell and Jonathan Bennison; Castleford Tigers scored through Will Tate (3), Sam Wood and Liam Horne.

Castleford Tigers were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 8 times to 10. Castleford Tigers were sharper in attack, breaking the line 5 times to 4. St Helens held the discipline edge, conceding 1 penalty to 3. In a 2-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,114** | Run metres | 753 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **26** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| 5 | Offloads | **8** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 5 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.1 but the actual margin was 2 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (53/100) — penalties St Helens 1 · Castleford Tigers 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 81.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — model probability 81.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 13-24 — model probability 81.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 14 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 82% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 380 ELO points clear, 1616 to 1236. Form leans St Helens' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 14.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 9.6pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 46.4pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | -36.8pts |
| 1217.8m | Run Metres | 563.0m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 1.6 |
| 275.2 | Tackles | 218.0 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R22 W · R23 W · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L | 18.0 |
| Castleford Tigers | R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W · R26 L | 9.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 10 | St Helens | St Helens 67% ✗ |
| 2025 | R20 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 60 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.77 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.58 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.12/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.58/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.77/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.54/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.58/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.54/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.42/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 6 | 11 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 101m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 28 | 25 · 82 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 518m/g | 340m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.4/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 81.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 7 | 7 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 312m/g | 207m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.04) +150% · Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.21) +86% · Wingers 1.34/g (lg 0.9) +49%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28% · Wingers 0.65/g (lg 0.9) -28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 15 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 11/12g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 18 in 16g | 11/10g (3·2·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 7/9g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 26% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 44' |
| 3 | Jon Bennison | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.24 AI 48% ✗ No try | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/9g | 5/9g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.68 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.99 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 6/4g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.51 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.79 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 34/61g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.47 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 14/64g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Noah Stephens | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 0% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 9 | Moses Mbye | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Agnatius Paasi | PR | 2 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 5/42g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 15/46g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | James Bell | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/37g | 6% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 15 | Jake Burns | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/10g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Leon Cowen | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Davies | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Tate | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 27' 76' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Elliot Wallis | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.45 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tex Hoy | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 6 in 26g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 26g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Stimson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 4 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/16g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1616 · Castleford Tigers 1236 · ELO difference: 380 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — St Helens predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)