# Salford Red Devils v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 16 – 52 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 33% / Wakefield Trinity 67% · Salford Community Stadium · Fri, 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Esan Marsters (3' 1st), Nathan Connell (11' Tipped ⚡), Jack Walker (74') · Wakefield Trinity: Renouf Atoni (20'), Liam Hood (27'), Tom Johnstone (39' Tipped ⚡), Ky Rodwell (50'), Cameron Scott (55'), Cameron Scott (58'), Tom Johnstone (62' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Smith (66'), Cameron Scott (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 67% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Salford Red Devils 16–52 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 27 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity overran Salford Red Devils 52–16 at Salford Community Stadium. Leading 18–12 at half-time, Wakefield Trinity pulled clear late.

Esan Marsters opened the scoring; Salford Red Devils crossed through Esan Marsters, Nathan Connell and Jack Walker; Wakefield Trinity scored through Renouf Atoni, Liam Hood, Tom Johnstone (2), Ky Rodwell, Cameron Scott (3) and Harvey Smith.

Salford Red Devils were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to 9. Wakefield Trinity were sharper in attack, breaking the line 10 times to 3 and busting 52 tackles.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 549 | Run metres | **1,362** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 11 | Tackle busts | **52** |
| **8** | Offloads | 7 |
| **5** | Errors | 9 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 9 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 8/9 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 5 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.3 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 68 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 45. Wakefield Trinity led 12–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (0/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 2 · Wakefield Trinity 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 67.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 67% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 402 ELO points clear, 1557 to 1155. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 45. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 11.0pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -16.4pts | Avg Margin | 12.8pts |
| 570.3m | Run Metres | 902.2m |
| 1.5 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 241.5 | Tackles | 237.0 |
| 4.5 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R22 L · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L | 11.0 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L · R26 W | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Salford Red Devils | 0 – 48 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R12 | Wakefield Trinity | 72 – 10 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R23 | Salford Red Devils | 20 – 0 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 32 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R5 | Salford Red Devils | 14 – 13 | Wakefield Trinity |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.31 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.69 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.23/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.69/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.62/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 0.54/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.69/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.19/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 21 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 91m/g | 95m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 95 | 45 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 206m/g | 415m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 11.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 29 | 24 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 332m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 94.5% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 0.9) +34%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.26) +77% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.18) +56%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Walker | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 20% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 4 | Louix Gorman | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Jack Darbyshire | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joe Mellor | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Davis | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Justin Sangare | PR | 4 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 14% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Leon Ruan | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Tiaki Chan | 2R | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Nene Macdonald | INT | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.13 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Declan Murphy | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Isaac Shaw | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 13 in 23g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.17 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.89 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 55' 58' 69' |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 9 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 9/10g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.56 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 62' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.17 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 5 in 25g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 8 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.13 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Ky Rodwell | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 15 | Josh Griffin | INT | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 66' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1155 · Wakefield Trinity 1557 · ELO difference: 402 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)