# Leigh Leopards v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 30 – 16 Huddersfield Giants

_Leigh Leopards hunt down Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 8 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 75% / Huddersfield Giants 25% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: AJ Towse (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh Charnley (18' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Hodgson (48' Tipped ⚡), Frankie Halton (55'), Brad Dwyer (60'), Brad Dwyer (78') · Huddersfield Giants: Lewis Jagger (33' Tipped ⚡), Jake Bibby (45' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Burgess (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 75% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Leigh Leopards 30–16 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 27 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards beat Huddersfield Giants 30–16 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Leading 8–4 at half-time, Leigh Leopards pulled clear late.

AJ Towse opened the scoring; Leigh Leopards crossed through AJ Towse, Josh Charnley, Bailey Hodgson, Frankie Halton and Brad Dwyer (2); Huddersfield Giants scored through Lewis Jagger, Jake Bibby and Thomas Burgess.

Huddersfield Giants were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 8 times to 12. Leigh Leopards were sharper in attack, breaking the line 9 times to 2 and busting 39 tackles.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,220** | Run metres | 871 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 30 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 12 | Errors | **8** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/6 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 12 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leigh Leopards by 17.6 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 46, within 0 points. Leigh Leopards led 8–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 13-24 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (8/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 3 · Huddersfield Giants 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 18 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 75% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 334 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1344. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Huddersfield Giants.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 17.6, with the two sides combining for about 46. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 31.6pts | Avg Score | 10.2pts |
| 10.4pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Margin | -18.6pts |
| 1327.8m | Run Metres | 816.6m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.4 |
| 281.6 | Tackles | 278.6 |
| 7.0 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W | 31.6 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R22 L · R23 W · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W | 10.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Huddersfield Giants | 30 – 18 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 75% ✗ |
| 2026 | R9 | Leigh Leopards | 30 – 16 | Huddersfield Giants | Leigh Leopards 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R13 | Huddersfield Giants | 24 – 28 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 10 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.96 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.54/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 6th) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.15/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 6th) | 0.46/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 8 | 4 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 69m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 34 | 29 · 63 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 594m/g | 358m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 80.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 12 | 7 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Props 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38% · Centres 0.55/g (lg 0.4) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.24/g (lg 0.18) +33%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0% · Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.03 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| 2 | AJ Towse | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.64 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 13/23g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 14/14g | 27/34g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.68 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.02 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 4 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 8/38g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.89 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 4/32g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.59 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Ben McNamara | HK | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/31g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/24g | 16% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 6 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 4/24g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.02 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Hughes | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/16g | 4/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 5/35g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/20g | 3/21g | 12% | — | 🏉 60' 78' |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 10 in 22g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 38% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lewis Jagger | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 11 in 24g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Taane Milne | CE | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Bibby | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Olly Russell | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Kieran Rush | HB | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Tristan Powell | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Burgess | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Harry Rushton | 2R | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 1 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty English | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | George King | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Fenton Rogers | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1678 · Huddersfield Giants 1344 · ELO difference: 334 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)