# Hull KR v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 28 – 20 Warrington Wolves

_Hull KR fly past Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 87% / Warrington Wolves 13% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Thu, 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Tyrone May (21'), Noah Booth (32' Tipped ⚡), Noah Booth (39' Tipped ⚡), Arthur Mourgue (67'), Tyrone May (75') · Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Stone (49'), Adam Holroyd (54'), Josh Thewlis (60' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 87% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Hull KR 28–20 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 27 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR held off Warrington Wolves 28–20 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Hull KR led 16–6 at half-time and held on.

Josh Thewlis opened the scoring; Hull KR crossed through Tyrone May (2), Noah Booth (2) and Arthur Mourgue; Warrington Wolves scored through Josh Thewlis (2), Sam Stone and Adam Holroyd.

Warrington Wolves were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 6 times to 11. Hull KR were sharper in attack, breaking the line 7 times to 2 and busting 39 tackles.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,024** | Run metres | 591 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 16 |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| 11 | Errors | **6** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 11 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 87% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 9.8 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Hull KR 4 · Warrington Wolves 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 86.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — model probability 86.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 86.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 10 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 87% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 390 ELO points clear, 1703 to 1313. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Warrington Wolves.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 40. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 11.6pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 1193.4m | Run Metres | 728.0m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 1.6 |
| 315.4 | Tackles | 246.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L | 11.6 |
| Warrington Wolves | R22 W · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Warrington Wolves | 35 – 12 | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves 60% ✓ |
| 2026 | R19 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 12 | Hull KR | Hull KR 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R2 | Hull KR | 28 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2025 | R12 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 31 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 10 – 8 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.85 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 4th there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.81/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.42/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.12/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2.08/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.54/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.27/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.85/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 7 | 6 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 115m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 89.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 75 · 26 | 49 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 618m/g | 307m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.5/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 79.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 6 | 5 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 296m/g | 247m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · 2nd Rows 0.31/g (lg 0.25) +24% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.21) -14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 9 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/12g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 17 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 11/16g | 8/15g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.74 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 12/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 4/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.57 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.76 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.55 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 39' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 19 in 23g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 26/44g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 6/24g | 18% | — | 🏉 21' 75' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/30g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.56 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 8 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 8/49g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.19 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 1/41g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 12/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/47g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/36g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 5 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/26g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/8g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.26 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 13 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 10/19g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.99 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 11 in 24g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/4g | 42% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 60' |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 8/16g | 1/5g | 38% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matt Dufty | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Philbin | PR | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 12 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 13 | Ryan Matterson | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Lucas Green | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Mckinney | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1703 · Warrington Wolves 1313 · ELO difference: 390 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)