# Hull FC v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 22 – 26 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons survive a scare against Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 78% / Catalans Dragons 22% · MKM Stadium · Thu, 18 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Harvey Barron (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Harvey Barron (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lewis Martin (64' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (69' Tipped ⚡) · Catalans Dragons: Nick Cotric (6'), Tommy Makinson (9' Tipped ⚡), Reimis Smith (18'), Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (46'), Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 78% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Hull FC 22–26 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 27 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons edged Hull FC 26–22 at MKM Stadium. Catalans Dragons led 14–12 at half-time and held on.

Harvey Barron opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Harvey Barron (2) and Lewis Martin (2); Catalans Dragons scored through Nick Cotric, Tommy Makinson, Reimis Smith and Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (2).

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 78% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.8 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 4/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 78.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 78.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 78.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 5 · Predicted total: 40

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 27 | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons 61% ✗ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull FC | 24 – 20 | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 34 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 24 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull FC | 4 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 23 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 6th) | 0.19/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.15/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 7th) | 0.88/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.85/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.81/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.58/g (def 5th) | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 13 | 6 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 38m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 92.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 38 | 22 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 396m/g | 356m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 13.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.7% | 84.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 2 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 344m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.24/g (lg 0.19) +26% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22%
**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 11 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 12/22g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.49 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.62 AI 22% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 13' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 9 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/17g | 3/20g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.32 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 8 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/16g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.83 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 23 in 26g | 11/10g (0·1·0·3·4·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 19/24g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.27 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.08 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' 69' |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 4 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Callum Kemp | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Watts | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/21g | 3/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 6/48g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Brad Fash | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/39g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/13g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 4 in 21g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 5/16g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.07 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 46' 54' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 7/11g | 4/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.83 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 18' |
| 5 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.45 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.52 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan Dezaria | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 5 in 25g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.18 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Ben Garcia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Tevita Pangai Junior | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Paul Seguier | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Ugo Tison | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Arthur Romano | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)