# Wigan Warriors v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 62 – 6 Castleford Tigers

_Wigan Warriors march past Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 34 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 84% / Castleford Tigers 16% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 12 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Abbas Miski (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jai Field (12' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (22' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (27' Tipped ⚡), Jack Farrimond (32' Tipped ⚡), Jack Farrimond (37' Tipped ⚡), Abbas Miski (48' 1st Tipped 🎯), Harvie Hill (60'), Zach Eckersley (67' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (70' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Havard (75') · Castleford Tigers: Muizz Mustapha (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 84% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.7 predicted → 56 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Wigan Warriors 62–6 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 26 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors overran Castleford Tigers 62–6 at The Brick Community Stadium. Leading 34–0 at half-time, Wigan Warriors pulled clear late.

Abbas Miski opened the scoring; Wigan Warriors crossed through Abbas Miski (2), Jai Field (2), Liam Marshall (2), Jack Farrimond (2), Harvie Hill, Zach Eckersley and Ethan Havard; Castleford Tigers scored through Muizz Mustapha.

Castleford Tigers were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 7 times to 9. Wigan Warriors were sharper in attack, breaking the line 6 times to 1 and busting 45 tackles. Wigan Warriors held the discipline edge, conceding 1 penalty to 2.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,329** | Run metres | 354 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **45** | Tackle busts | 11 |
| **9** | Offloads | 3 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 0 |
| 9/11 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.7 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 68 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 42. Wigan Warriors led 34–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 7/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 1 · Castleford Tigers 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 83.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — model probability 83.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — model probability 83.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 21 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 84% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 503 ELO points clear, 1746 to 1243. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 20.7, with the two sides combining for about 42. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 9.6pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Conceded | 41.2pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Margin | -31.6pts |
| 1154.0m | Run Metres | 606.6m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 1.6 |
| 290.4 | Tackles | 222.0 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 7.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 26.4 |
| Castleford Tigers | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 9.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 14 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | Wigan Warriors 79% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Castleford Tigers | 16 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | R16 | Castleford Tigers | 20 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.8 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.44/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 6th) | 0.8/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.36/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.16/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.32/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 7 | 11 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 136m/g | 102m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 24 | 25 · 75 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 508m/g | 347m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 9.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 81.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 12 | 7 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 209m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.04) +150% · Fullbacks 0.37/g (lg 0.2) +85% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12% · Props 0.08/g (lg 0.13) -38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 22 in 23g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 4/6g | 35/44g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.31 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 70' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 7/5g | 30/29g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.23 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.75 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 48' |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 12 in 25g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2·0) | 1/3g | 10/22g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.52 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 14 in 24g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 20/40g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.47 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 13 in 23g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1) | 12/13g | 46/60g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.84 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 27' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 48/44g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.11 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jack Farrimond | HB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.46 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 37' |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 5/24g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 7 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/30g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Walters | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/19g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.36 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Brad O'Neill | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/35g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/27g | 4% | — | 🏉 60' |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Will Tate | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (2·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Elliot Wallis | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 6 in 25g | 4/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| 7 | Chris Atkin | HB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/16g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 2/25g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 25g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Stimson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/2g | 18% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 64' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1746 · Castleford Tigers 1243 · ELO difference: 503 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)