# Wakefield Trinity v Hull KR — Super League Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 28 – 12 Hull KR

_Wakefield Trinity see off Hull KR._

Half time: 26 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 39% / Hull KR 61% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 13 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Jake Trueman (3' 1st), Mason Lino (18'), Max Jowitt (27'), Cameron Scott (37') · Hull KR: Arthur Mourgue (43' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Gildart (69' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 61% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.8 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 28–12 Hull KR in Super League Round 26 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity beat Hull KR 28–12 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Wakefield Trinity led 26–0 at half-time and held on.

Jake Trueman opened the scoring; Wakefield Trinity crossed through Jake Trueman, Mason Lino, Max Jowitt and Cameron Scott; Hull KR scored through Arthur Mourgue and Oliver Gildart.

Wakefield Trinity were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to 6. Wakefield Trinity were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 1 and busting 34 tackles.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,291** | Run metres | 1,110 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| **7** | Offloads | 3 |
| **5** | Errors | 6 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 5 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 61% prediction for Hull KR, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.8 but the actual margin was 16 points. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 5 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 61.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — model probability 61.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 61.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 7 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 61%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 252 ELO points clear, 1756 to 1504. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Wakefield Trinity.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 6.8, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 10.4pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 828.0m | Run Metres | 1297.0m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 236.4 | Tackles | 296.0 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L | 24.8 |
| Hull KR | R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Hull KR | 6 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2026 | R13 | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 24 | Hull KR | Hull KR 79% ✗ |
| 2025 | R16 | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 14 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2023 | R27 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 56 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.96 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.64 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.64/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 5th) | 1.84/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.96/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th) | 2.12/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.32/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 9 | 27 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 94m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 47 | 73 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 411m/g | 617m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.4% | 82.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 6 | 17 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 328m/g | 298m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Wingers 0.73/g (lg 0.9) -19%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Wingers 1.23/g (lg 0.9) +37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 12 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/11g | 38% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 9 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 14/16g | 4/10g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.71 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.33 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/12g | 10% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 1/6g | 14% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 8 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/12g | 17% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Ky Rodwell | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Griffin | INT | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 4/8g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/11g | 9% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 8 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.45 AI 22% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 17 in 23g | 7/10g (3·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 12/13g | 1/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.15 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 24g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.76 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 5 | Jack Broadbent | WG | 13 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.66 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 19 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.74 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 5 in 24g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 8 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/14g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.81 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1504 · Hull KR 1756 · ELO difference: 252 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)