# Leigh Leopards v St Helens — Super League Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 28 – 10 St Helens

_Leigh Leopards outpace St Helens._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 64% / St Helens 36% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 12 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Andrew Badrock (11' 1st), Keanan Brand (23' Tipped ⚡), Jack Hughes (57'), Edwin Ipape (65'), Owen Trout (74') · St Helens: Kyle Feldt (44' Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 64% | Won |
| St Helens | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Leigh Leopards 28–10 St Helens in Super League Round 26 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards ran past St Helens 28–10 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Leigh Leopards led 12–0 at half-time and held on.

Andrew Badrock opened the scoring; Leigh Leopards crossed through Andrew Badrock, Keanan Brand, Jack Hughes, Edwin Ipape and Owen Trout; St Helens scored through Kyle Feldt and Harry Robertson.

Leigh Leopards were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to 8. Leigh Leopards were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 2 and busting 58 tackles. Leigh Leopards held the discipline edge, conceding 4 penalties to 7.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,172** | Run metres | 1,133 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **58** | Tackle busts | 29 |
| 5 | Offloads | **8** |
| **5** | Errors | 8 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/6 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 5 | Errors | 8 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.2 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 38, within 3 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 4 · St Helens 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 63.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 63.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 63.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leigh Leopards are the call at 64%, but St Helens stay live at 36%.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Leigh Leopards, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 9.6pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 1282.2m | Run Metres | 1252.4m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 283.4 | Tackles | 263.0 |
| 7.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 28.8 |
| St Helens | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 L · R25 L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 48 – 10 | St Helens | Leigh Leopards 73% ✓ |
| 2026 | R2 | St Helens | 20 – 18 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 59% ✗ |
| 2025 | R19 | St Helens | 4 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R19 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 3rd there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (0.68 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.16/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.52/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.24/g (def 6th) | 1.64/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.48/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.68/g (def 6th) | 1.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.36/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 8 | 17 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 150m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 92.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 54 · 32 | 68 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 594m/g | 516m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.3/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 84.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 12 | 12 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 367m/g | 315m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 92.8% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.4) -13% · Wingers 0.65/g (lg 0.89) -27% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.19) -32%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 15 in 23g | 11/10g (3·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·3) | 0/2g | 9/14g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.13 AI 26% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 3 | Andrew Badrock | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 9% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 11 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 13/22g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.97 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 5/13g | 27/33g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.62 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.68 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 4 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 8/37g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 4/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 5 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/23g | 14% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/31g | 22% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/30g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 5/23g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 3/31g | 4% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Ofahengaue | INT | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.40 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 4 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 5/34g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/18g | 3/20g | 12% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 15 in 25g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.31 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 17 in 15g | 10/10g (0·3·2·0·0·1·2·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.77 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 11 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 37% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.13 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.23 AI 23% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $33.01 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 4 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 23g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Batchelor | LK | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Jonny Lomax | INT | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | James Bell | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1651 vs 1644), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.88). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1644 · St Helens 1651 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)