# Leeds Rhinos v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 8 – 16 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons torch Leeds Rhinos._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 80% / Catalans Dragons 20% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Thu, 11 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Ryan Hall (63' Tipped ⚡), Brodie Croft (77' Tipped ⚡) · Catalans Dragons: Ugo Tison (13' 1st), Julian Bousquet (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 80% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 13.9 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 8–16 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 26 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons held off Leeds Rhinos 16–8 at AMT Headingley Stadium.

Ugo Tison opened the scoring; Leeds Rhinos crossed through Ryan Hall and Brodie Croft; Catalans Dragons scored through Ugo Tison and Julian Bousquet.

Catalans Dragons were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 7 times to 12. Leeds Rhinos were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 1 and busting 51 tackles. Leeds Rhinos held the discipline edge, conceding 2 penalties to 3.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,200** | Run metres | 557 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **51** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **6** | Offloads | 3 |
| 12 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 0/2 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 12 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 80% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.9 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 24 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 39. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 2 · Catalans Dragons 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 80.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 80.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — model probability 80.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 14 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 80% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 415 ELO points clear, 1742 to 1327. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Catalans Dragons.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 13.9, with the two sides combining for about 39. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 34.8pts | Avg Score | 17.4pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1280.6m | Run Metres | 806.2m |
| 4.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 264.4 | Tackles | 215.8 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 6.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 34.8 |
| Catalans Dragons | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L · R25 W | 17.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 6 – 28 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 67% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 46 – 4 | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos 84% ✓ |
| 2025 | R4 | Catalans Dragons | 11 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R11 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Miller, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.84 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.72 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.72/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.2/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.88/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.72/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.84/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.28/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.52/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 6 | 5 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 38m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 91.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 30 | 22 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 576m/g | 360m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 85.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 5 | 2 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 333m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.2) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 9 in 21g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/23g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.63 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.62 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 11 in 25g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 11/23g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.62 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.58 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Max Simpson | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 9 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 10/17g | 4/13g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.82 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/8g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 6 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 7/22g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.10 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 1/19g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/24g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 8 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 4/24g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/14g | 3/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 6 in 25g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/22g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/17g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.34 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/12g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.13 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 6/12g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.26 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.16 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Theo Fages | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan Dezaria | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 5% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tanguy Zenon | INT | no games | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1742 · Catalans Dragons 1327 · ELO difference: 415 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)