# Hull FC v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 34 – 2 Warrington Wolves

_Hull FC run riot over Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 22 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 62% / Warrington Wolves 38% · MKM Stadium · Sat, 13 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Lewis Martin (21' 1st Tipped 🎯), Denive Balmforth (23' Tipped ⚡), Aidan Sezer (28'), Harvey Barron (36' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Lane (58'), Zak Hardaker (62') · Warrington Wolves: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 62% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Hull FC 34–2 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 26 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC overran Warrington Wolves 34–2 at MKM Stadium. Leading 22–2 at half-time, Hull FC pulled clear late.

Lewis Martin opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Lewis Martin, Denive Balmforth, Aidan Sezer, Harvey Barron, Jordan Lane and Zak Hardaker.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 32 points. Hull FC led 22–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 5/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 62.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 62.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 62.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Hull FC | 14 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 4 | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 28 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (0.84 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.16 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.48/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 7th) | 1.16/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.84/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.12/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 7th) | 0.56/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.76/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 5th) | 0.88/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 6 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 117m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 38 | 49 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 389m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 78.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 8 | 5 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 251m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · 2nd Rows 0.29/g (lg 0.25) +16%
**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 11/21g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.52 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.97 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 9 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/16g | 3/19g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.55 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/15g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.56 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 22 in 25g | 10/10g (0·0·1·0·3·4·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 18/23g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.48 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.55 AI 26% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 21' |
| 6 | Callum Kemp | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 8 | William Gardiner | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Denive Balmforth | HK | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 4/15g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.71 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| 10 | Liam Watts | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 2/13g | 14% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 5/47g | 6% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Brad Fash | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/38g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/12g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.15 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Sam Eseh | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 11 in 23g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 0/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.64 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.86 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/15g | 1/3g | 42% | — | — |
| 4 | James Duffy | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 12 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.06 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.79 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Stefan Ratchford | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Philbin | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Matterson | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/23g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Mckinney | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)