# Warrington Wolves v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 12 – 34 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards hunt down Warrington Wolves._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 22% / Leigh Leopards 78% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 06 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Toby King (71'), Josh Thewlis (74' Tipped ⚡) · Leigh Leopards: Keanan Brand (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Matt Davis (31'), Keanan Brand (49' 1st Tipped 🎯), Umyla Hanley (63' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Hodgson (68'), Keanan Brand (77' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 78% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Warrington Wolves 12–34 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 25 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards ran past Warrington Wolves 34–12 at Halliwell Jones Stadium.

Keanan Brand opened the scoring; Warrington Wolves crossed through Toby King and Josh Thewlis; Leigh Leopards scored through Keanan Brand (3), Matt Davis, Umyla Hanley and Bailey Hodgson.

Leigh Leopards were sharper in attack, breaking the line 7 times to 3 and busting 35 tackles. Warrington Wolves held the discipline edge, conceding 3 penalties to 6.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 659 | Run metres | **1,355** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| 1 | Offloads | **5** |
| 6 | Errors | 6 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 6 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Leigh Leopards 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 78.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 78.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 78.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 6 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 78% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 274 ELO points clear, 1631 to 1357. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Warrington Wolves.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 37. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | 12.4pts |
| 835.0m | Run Metres | 1266.4m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 241.6 | Tackles | 294.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L | 17.2 |
| Leigh Leopards | R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 57% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 42 – 6 | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 20 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 4th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Niu, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.21/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 8th) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.58/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 8th) | 1.5/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.63/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 14 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 118m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 41 | 49 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 589m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 20.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 85.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 17 | 24 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 254m/g | 369m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.5% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0% · Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23% · 2nd Rows 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 10 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 24/47g | 42% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 18/38g | 40% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 4 | Stefan Ratchford | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 12 in 17g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 1/2g | 7/8g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.06 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.72 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Leon Hayes | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Philbin | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/48g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 9/53g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 18% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Matterson | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/27g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luke Thomas | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/21g | 8% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 12 in 22g | 9/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.64 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 49' 77' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 10 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.06 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/9g | 18/21g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.90 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/15g | 3/7g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.51 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 4 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.06 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Aaron Pene | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Trout | INT | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 3/20g | 12% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/14g | 1/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1357 · Leigh Leopards 1631 · ELO difference: 274 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)