# St Helens v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 4 – 18 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors go to war with St Helens._

Half time: 4 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 31% / Wigan Warriors 69% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 05 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Deon Cross (5' 1st) · Wigan Warriors: Jake Wardle (28'), Liam Marshall (32' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (44' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 69% | Won |
| St Helens | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

St Helens 4–18 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 25 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors beat St Helens 18–4 at The BrewDog Stadium. Wigan Warriors led 12–4 at half-time and held on.

Deon Cross opened the scoring; St Helens crossed through Deon Cross; Wigan Warriors scored through Jake Wardle, Liam Marshall and Jai Field.

Wigan Warriors were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 10 times to 11. Wigan Warriors were sharper in attack, breaking the line 7 times to 1 and busting 37 tackles. St Helens held the discipline edge, conceding 5 penalties to 8.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,046 | Run metres | **1,145** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 17 | Tackle busts | **37** |
| **14** | Offloads | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 22 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 38. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (24/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Wigan Warriors 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 69.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — model probability 69.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 69.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 7 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 69% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 38 ELO points clear, 1718 to 1680.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 38. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 30.0pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Conceded | 10.4pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Margin | 18.0pts |
| 1336.4m | Run Metres | 1158.6m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 260.2 | Tackles | 283.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 L | 30.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 16 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 76% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wigan Warriors | 16 – 14 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | St Helens | 34 – 24 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 58% ✗ |
| 2025 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 14 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 12 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (0.79 conceded/game). Key man: Dagnall, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.54 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.54/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.46/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.42/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.46/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 5 | 22 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 172m/g | 133m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 67 · 23 | 75 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 517m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.8/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 14 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 315m/g | 352m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.4) -13% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26% · Wingers 0.64/g (lg 0.89) -28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 15 in 24g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/11g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.59 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 17 in 14g | 14/10g (4·0·3·2·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 7/8g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.23 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.90 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 11 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/10g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 8/17g | 20/48g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.31 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 4/8g | 30% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 14/63g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 10/56g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/25g | 7/25g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.43 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/55g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 15/45g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 5/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack Welsby | LK | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 34/60g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.65 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.87 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | Curtis Sironen | INT | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 7/35g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | James Bell | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 5/41g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/9g | 13% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 21 in 22g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/7g | 2/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.31 AI 23% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $33.57 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 12 in 24g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.39 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.06 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 13 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/6g | 38% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 6/15g | 2/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.91 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $30.74 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/8g | 6/5g | 56% | — | — |
| 8 | Harvie Hill | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 3/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Luke Thompson | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 7 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1680 · Wigan Warriors 1718 · ELO difference: 38 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)