# Salford Red Devils v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 16 – 17 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons surge back to scorch Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 10 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 69% / Catalans Dragons 31% · Salford Community Stadium · Thu, 04 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Jack Darbyshire (14' 1st Tipped ⚡), Neil Tchamambe (30'), Neil Tchamambe (80') · Catalans Dragons: Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (22'), Jordan Dezaria (52'), Denive Balmforth (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | 69% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Salford Red Devils 16–17 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 25 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons edged Salford Red Devils 17–16 at Salford Community Stadium. Trailing 10–4 at half-time, Catalans Dragons flipped the game after the break.

Jack Darbyshire opened the scoring; Salford Red Devils crossed through Jack Darbyshire and Neil Tchamambe (2); Catalans Dragons scored through Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet, Jordan Dezaria and Denive Balmforth.

Salford Red Devils were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 6 times to 7. Catalans Dragons made the hard metres, carrying for 809 run metres. Salford Red Devils held the discipline edge, conceding 2 penalties to 5. In a 1-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 545 | Run metres | **809** |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| 17 | Tackle busts | **29** |
| 4 | Offloads | 4 |
| **6** | Errors | 7 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 6 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 69% prediction for Salford Red Devils, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Salford Red Devils by 0.9 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Catalans Dragons trailed 10–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–17. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (52/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 2 · Catalans Dragons 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Salford Red Devils to win — model probability 69.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Salford Red Devils — model probability 69.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Salford Red Devils 1-12 — model probability 69.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Salford Red Devils by 1 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Salford Red Devils here: 69% to see off Catalans Dragons. The ratings say otherwise: Catalans Dragons sit 126 ELO points clear, 1314 to 1187, so the model is backing Salford Red Devils against the ratings gap.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Salford Red Devils, which says Forward Pack and Backline Quality carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Salford Red Devils to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 9.8pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 50.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -40.6pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 490.3m | Run Metres | 795.4m |
| 1.5 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 196.8 | Tackles | 221.2 |
| 3.8 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 W | 9.8 |
| Catalans Dragons | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 10 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R25 | Salford Red Devils | 27 – 12 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R17 | Catalans Dragons | 20 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R27 | Salford Red Devils | 8 – 19 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2023 | R20 | Catalans Dragons | 42 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the middle: Super League's 12th-ranked middle attack (0.54 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (1.96 conceded/game). Key man: Sangare, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.54 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.25/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.21/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.54/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.71/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.54/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 20 | 5 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 87m/g | 35m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 92.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 92 | 21 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 214m/g | 366m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 85.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 29 | 2 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.26) +81% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.19) +53%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Walker | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.54 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Neil djeukam | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.54 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Darbyshire | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.31 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 4 | Esan Marsters | CE | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.54 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joe Mellor | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Justin Sangare | PR | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/7g | 1/8g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Sam Davis | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Leon Ruan | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaac Shaw | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Emmanuel Waine | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Declan Murphy | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 2 | Lenny Marc | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.37 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.80 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.96 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Ugo Tison | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 5 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.31 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Paul Seguier | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Tevita Pangai Junior | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Arthur Romano | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 63' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1187 · Catalans Dragons 1314 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)