# Hull KR v Hull FC — Super League Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 18 – 4 Hull FC

_Hull KR fly past Hull FC._

Half time: 4 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 76% / Hull FC 24% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sun, 07 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Noah Booth (17' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jez Litten (45' Tipped ⚡), Jack Broadbent (62'), Tom Davies (75' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Tom Briscoe (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 76% | Won |
| Hull FC | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Hull KR 18–4 Hull FC in Super League Round 25 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR beat Hull FC 18–4 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Leading 4–0 at half-time, Hull KR pulled clear late.

Noah Booth opened the scoring; Hull KR crossed through Noah Booth, Jez Litten, Jack Broadbent and Tom Davies; Hull FC scored through Tom Briscoe.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 9.2 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 22 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 44. Hull KR led 4–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 5/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 76.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — model probability 76.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 76.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 76% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 271 ELO points clear, 1746 to 1475. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull FC.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 9.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 1353.0m | Run Metres | 1164.2m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 293.4 | Tackles | 250.4 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 27.6 |
| Hull FC | R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 L | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Hull FC | 20 – 34 | Hull KR | Hull KR 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Hull KR | 26 – 12 | Hull FC | Hull KR 70% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | Hull KR 79% ✓ |
| 2025 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 28 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.54 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.46 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.83/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.54/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.17/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.58/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 5 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 188m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 23 | 49 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 615m/g | 394m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 80.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 6 | 15 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 303m/g | 356m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.19) +37% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.2) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/11g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 16 in 22g | 8/10g (2·3·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 12/15g | 7/14g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 23g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 12/23g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 12 in 23g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 9/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (1·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.21 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $25.81 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 17' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 19 in 21g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 26/43g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.44 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.41 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/23g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 5 in 23g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 7/48g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.88 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.49 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/40g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 12/32g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/46g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/35g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 8/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lloyd Kemp | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 8 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 2/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 25% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.37 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 22 in 24g | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·0·3·4·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.96 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.99 AI 33% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.24 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jack Ashworth | PR | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Watts | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Callum Kemp | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1746 · Hull FC 1475 · ELO difference: 271 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r25-hull-kr-v-hull-fc
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)