# Castleford Tigers v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 25 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 26 – 22 Wakefield Trinity

_Castleford Tigers pounce on a gallant Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 14 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 45% / Wakefield Trinity 55% · The OneBore Stadium · Fri, 05 Sept, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Chris Atkin (13'), Elliot Wallis (23' Tipped ⚡), Sam Wood (28'), Alex Mellor (52'), Liam Horne (64') · Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh Rourke (35' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rourke (45' Tipped ⚡), Seth Nikotemo (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 55% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Castleford Tigers 26–22 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 25 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers edged Wakefield Trinity 26–22 at The OneBore Stadium. Castleford Tigers led 14–10 at half-time and held on.

Tom Johnstone opened the scoring; Castleford Tigers crossed through Chris Atkin, Elliot Wallis, Sam Wood, Alex Mellor and Liam Horne; Wakefield Trinity scored through Tom Johnstone, Josh Rourke (2) and Seth Nikotemo.

Castleford Tigers were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 6 times to 13. Castleford Tigers were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 3. Castleford Tigers held the discipline edge, conceding 2 penalties to 6. In a 4-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 757 | Run metres | **1,169** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 22 | Tackle busts | **23** |
| **7** | Offloads | 3 |
| **6** | Errors | 13 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/3 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 6 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 55% prediction for Wakefield Trinity, a notable result. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (51/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 2 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wakefield Trinity are the call at 55%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 342 ELO points clear, 1545 to 1203. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Castleford Tigers.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Wakefield Trinity, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 4.4pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 44.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -40.4pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 591.6m | Run Metres | 842.8m |
| 0.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 232.4 | Tackles | 236.2 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 4.4 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R20 W · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 52 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 67% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 48 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 51% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 34 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R10 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Wakefield Trinity | 13 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.83 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 5th there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.96 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 9th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.58/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.96/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.25/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.04/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 14 | 14 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 101m/g | 93m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 72 | 40 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 348m/g | 413m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 23 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 208m/g | 328m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.2) +45% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 0.89) +40%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.04) +150% · Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.2) +75% · Wingers 1.31/g (lg 0.89) +47%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Will Tate | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.54 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Elliot Wallis | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.22 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.82 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 6 | Chris Atkin | 5/8 | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 2% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 6 in 24g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 10 | Joe Stimson | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Singleton | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/19g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.03 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 45' |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.07 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.48 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 11/15g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.58 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.25 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Mathieu Cozza | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Griffin | INT | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.76 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.05 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1203 · Wakefield Trinity 1545 · ELO difference: 342 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)