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Super League | Round 24

alphr.com.au

HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • FRIDAY 29 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1225
SAL

Salford Red Devils

❌ Upset — model favoured Warrington Wolves at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

75%

Salford Red Devils

25%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warrington Wolves carry a 271-point ELO rating advantage (1408 vs 1137). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 22.5 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.03

Lost ✗

Edge

-22.5%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +22.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R19L
R20L
R21L
R22W
R23L

older → newer

17.6
Salford Red Devils
R19L
R20L
R21L
R22L
R23L
6.0

Avg Conceded

21.8

Warrington Wolves

56.4

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

-4.2

Warrington Wolves

-50.4

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

930

Warrington Wolves

378

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

2.4

Warrington Wolves

1.0

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Salford Red Devils lead 3-2
Jul 2025WAR 24 - 12 SAL
Feb 2024WAR 12 - 17 SAL
Jun 2024WAR 14 - 25 SAL
Sep 2023WAR 20 - 24 SAL
Mar 2023WAR 36 - 20 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1408Overall1137
SAL
ELO difference: +271 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

756Forwards834
Best: 1068SAL +78Best: 1025
783Backs941
Best: 905SAL +158Best: 1000
600Halves810
Best: 600SAL +210Best: 810
804Hooker1000
SAL +196

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
SAL
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
17.6pts
Avg Score
6.0pts
21.8pts
Avg Conceded
56.4pts
-4.2pts
Avg Margin
-50.4pts
930.0m
Run Metres
378.4m
2.4
Clean Breaks
1.0
246.2
Tackles
164.8
9.4
Errors
3.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

75%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 23 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +22.5

0/4 match predictions correct