# Warrington Wolves v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 12 – 25 Salford Red Devils

_Salford Red Devils torment Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 75% / Salford Red Devils 25% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 29 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Matthew Dufty (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jake Thewlis (43' Tipped ⚡) · Salford Red Devils: Jack Darbyshire (16'), Justin Sangare (30'), Justin Sangare (51'), Tiaki Chan (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 75% | Lost |
| Salford Red Devils | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 22.5 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Warrington Wolves 12–25 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 24 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Warrington Wolves winning this by 22.5 points, rating them 1408 to Salford Red Devils' 1137 and giving them three chances in four. Salford won by 13. That's not a miss, that's the model getting the shape of the game backwards, and it's worth working through why.

Matthew Dufty gave Warrington exactly the start the numbers wanted, over inside two minutes and converted for a 6-0 lead. If the model had stopped watching there it would have looked prophetic. It didn't stop there.

Jack Darbyshire hit back for Salford at the 16th minute, Rowan Milnes' conversion levelled it soon after, and by the half-hour Justin Sangare had Salford in front through his first try of the afternoon. Salford turned at the break leading 12-6, which on its own tells you the pre-match rating had the wrong side favoured, let alone by the wrong margin.

Warrington did find an answer. Jake Thewlis scored just after the break and Josh Thewlis' conversion tied it up at 12-12, the closest the home side would get. From there it was all Salford. Sangare's second try put them back in front, Tiaki Chan added a fourth try past the hour, and Milnes was perfect off the tee all afternoon. Twelve unanswered points after halftime shut the door.

The stat sheet explains why Salford could do that despite Warrington racking up more run metres, 785 to 672. Salford held the ball, coughing up just 3 errors to Warrington's 7, and that discipline with possession let them strike when it counted: 2 line breaks to 1, and 7 offloads to Warrington's solitary one. Warrington actually won the penalty count, 3 conceded to Salford's 4, and still lost by 13. Field position and completion mattered more than territory here.

None of this should have been a total shock if you looked past the ELO gap. Salford's positional ratings had them well ahead everywhere that matters in this code: forwards 834 to 756, backs 941 to 783, halves 810 to 600, hooker 1000 to 804. Those are the kind of edges that show up in second-half composure and shape, not just raw yardage, and they did.

The form lines make the result stranger on paper. Salford came in on five straight losses, averaging just 6 points a game and shipping 56.4. Warrington had the better recent run, a win in their last five and an average margin of minus 4.2 against Salford's minus 50.4. Form guides can only tell you so much, and this was one of those weeks where the ledger and the performance on the day didn't match at all.

Warrington's story here is a game they led early and levelled twice, only to have the last say belong entirely to the other side. Dufty and Jake Thewlis did what was asked of them individually, but one offload in eighty minutes against Salford's seven says the ball just moved better in the other jersey.

Alphr's model went 1/15 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was a miss worth sitting with.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **785** | Run metres | 672 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **2** |
| **18** | Tackle busts | 16 |
| 1 | Offloads | **7** |
| 7 | Errors | **3** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 7 | Errors | 3 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Salford Red Devils defied the model's 75% prediction for Warrington Wolves, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.5 but the actual margin was 13 points. Salford Red Devils led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 13. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (16/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Salford Red Devils 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 74.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 23 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 75% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 271 ELO points clear, 1408 to 1137. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 22.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 6.0pts |
| 21.8pts | Avg Conceded | 56.4pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | -50.4pts |
| 930.0m | Run Metres | 473.0m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 1.3 |
| 246.2 | Tackles | 206.0 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 4.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L | 17.6 |
| Salford Red Devils | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 6.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Salford Red Devils lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R17 | Salford Red Devils | 12 – 24 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 17 – 12 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | R14 | Warrington Wolves | 14 – 25 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R25 | Salford Red Devils | 24 – 20 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2023 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 36 – 20 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.87 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.43 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.35 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 8th) | 0.26/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.61/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 8th) | 0.43/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.83/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.87/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.35/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.43/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 4 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 115m/g | 87m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 46 · 41 | 11 · 91 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 221m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 85.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 15 | 5 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 258m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.26) +81% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Wingers 1.36/g (lg 0.89) +53%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · 2nd Rows 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 53% ✗ No try | 🏉 2' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 10 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/9g | 24/46g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.33 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.47 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/16g | 18/37g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.97 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | James Duffy | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 6/7g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 28% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/18g | 12/39g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/7g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/52g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Ewan Smith | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Matterson | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 4/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/47g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Mckinney | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Walker | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Neil djeukam | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.85 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Darbyshire | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 16' |
| 4 | Louix Gorman | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.85 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Joe Mellor | HB | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 0/3g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Davis | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Justin Sangare | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 30' 51' |
| 11 | Leon Ruan | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Nikorima | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 16 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Croft | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1408 · Salford Red Devils 1137 · ELO difference: 271 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 23 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r24-warrington-wolves-v-salford-red-devils
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)