Leigh Leopards
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Leigh Leopards
85%
Castleford Tigers
15%
AI Match Overview
Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 411-point ELO rating advantage (1623 vs 1212). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 10.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leigh Leopards to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.1%
Line / Spread
Leigh Leopards +10.8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Leigh Leopards | R19W R20W R21L R22L R23W older → newer | 20.0 |
Castleford Tigers | R19W R20L R21L R22L R23L | 7.2 |
Avg Conceded
13.2
Leigh Leopards
38.4
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
6.8
Leigh Leopards
-31.2
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1206
Leigh Leopards
741
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
4.6
Leigh Leopards
1.4
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +10.8