# Leigh Leopards v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 46 – 6 Castleford Tigers

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 85% / Castleford Tigers 15% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Thu, 28 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Frankie Halton (3' 1st), Lachlan Lam (12' Tipped ⚡), Keanan Brand (19' Tipped ⚡), Josh Charnley (25' Tipped ⚡), Alec Tuitavake (52'), Brad Dwyer (56'), Alec Tuitavake (60'), Keanan Brand (73' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: Tex Hoy (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 85% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.8 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Leigh Leopards 46–6 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 24 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards had the game won by half-time and spent the second half proving it. Four tries inside the opening 27 minutes had them 24-0 up at the break, and Castleford Tigers had touched nothing. The only question left was how far it would stretch.

Turned out, a long way. Leigh Leopards scored again three minutes into the second half through Alec Tuitavake, then Brad Dwyer, then Tuitavake a second time, and by the 61st minute it was 42-0. Castleford Tigers finally got on the board through Tex Hoy in the 68th, with Daejarn Asi's conversion making it 42-6, but Keanan Brand's second try of the night five minutes later closed it out at 46-6. A full-time score that never looked in doubt from the third minute, when Frankie Halton crossed to open it.

The run metres tell you where this was decided: 1,425 to 443. Leigh Leopards broke the line seven times, Castleford none. Thirty-four tackle busts to twelve. When one side is getting that much go-forward and the other isn't cracking the defence at all, six tries becomes seven becomes eight, and it never really feels like it's slowing down.

Castleford Tigers actually held the error count, five to Leigh Leopards' eight, so it wasn't a case of gifting field position through sloppy hands. They just couldn't do anything with the ball they had. Discipline was even too, two penalties each. This wasn't a game lost to indiscipline or errors. It was lost to a gulf in class that showed up every time either side had the ball in hand.

That gulf was there in the numbers walking in. Leigh Leopards rated well clear across the park, forwards 1001 to 808, backs 1109 to 882, and halves 1100 to 600, and a spine advantage that big tends to show up exactly like this: quick ball, repeat sets, and a back three with room to move. Gareth O'Brien landed seven conversions from seven, the kind of night where the goal-kicking barely rates a mention because the tries kept arriving regardless.

Form lines pointed the same way. Leigh Leopards came in averaging 20 points scored and conceding 13.2, form of WWLLW. Castleford Tigers were the opposite story, 7.2 scored and 38.4 conceded on a run of WLLLL. Put those two trend lines next to each other and 46-6 isn't exactly a shock, even if the scale of it pushes past what either side's recent average suggested.

Alphr's model backed Leigh Leopards at 85 percent and had the numbers largely right in shape, if not in size. It expected a win by 10.8, and Leigh Leopards won by 40. The total of 47 points predicted was much closer to the mark, with 52 actually crossing the board, within five. Picking the winner was straightforward. Picking the margin, not so much. The model finished 4 from 15 on the match markets, a reminder that width matters as much as direction when the H2H's this lopsided.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,425** | Run metres | 443 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 12 |
| **8** | Offloads | 4 |
| 8 | Errors | **5** |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.8 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 52, within 5 points. Leigh Leopards led 24–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (0/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · Castleford Tigers 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 85.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 11 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 85% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 411 ELO points clear, 1623 to 1212. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 10.8, with the two sides combining for about 47. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 7.2pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Conceded | 38.4pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | -31.2pts |
| 1205.6m | Run Metres | 740.8m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 1.4 |
| 301.6 | Tackles | 237.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R19 W · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 20.0 |
| Castleford Tigers | R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 7.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards 79% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Castleford Tigers | 14 – 24 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 20 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 28 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Simm, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.87/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.48/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.87/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.96/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 6th) | 0.26/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 8 | 9 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 101m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 46 · 30 | 24 · 69 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 587m/g | 356m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.4/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 12 | 6 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 213m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.04) +150% · Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.2) +75% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/11g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 10 in 21g | 7/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/13g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.31 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 73' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.17 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 13/21g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.67 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 15/20g | 26/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.94 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.83 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 4/30g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.66 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 7/36g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.48 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| 8 | Aaron Pene | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 8/30g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/29g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/22g | 14% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 12 | Andrew Badrock | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 3/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 52' 60' |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 5/33g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/22g | 2/19g | 8% | — | 🏉 56' |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 68' |
| 2 | Alfie Lindsey | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.27 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Alex Mellor | CE | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 2/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Elliot Wallis | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.27 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chris Atkin | 5/8 | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 6 in 23g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Stimson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | George Lawler | LK | 5 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Westerman | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1623 · Castleford Tigers 1212 · ELO difference: 411 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 85%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)