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Super League | Round 24

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 30 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

034
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Hull

25%

Leeds Rhinos

75%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 217-point ELO rating advantage (1714 vs 1497). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hull. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 5.6 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

+6.1%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -5.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R19W
R20L
R21W
R22W
R23L

older → newer

30.8
Leeds Rhinos
R19W
R20L
R21W
R22W
R23W
34.0

Avg Conceded

15.2

Hull

9.4

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

15.6

Hull

24.6

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1214

Hull

1285

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

6.0

Hull

5.4

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
Apr 2026HUL 24 - 16 LEE
May 2025HUL 16 - 18 LEE
Feb 2024HUL 12 - 18 LEE
Sep 2024HUL 6 - 68 LEE
Jun 2024HUL 18 - 10 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1497Overall1714
LEE
ELO difference: -217 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

770Forwards960
Best: 1032LEE +190Best: 1259
863Backs1095
Best: 979LEE +232Best: 1384
917Halves1124
Best: 917LEE +208Best: 1124
600Hooker893
LEE +293

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
LEE
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
30.8pts
Avg Score
34.0pts
15.2pts
Avg Conceded
9.4pts
15.6pts
Avg Margin
24.6pts
1213.8m
Run Metres
1284.8m
6.0
Clean Breaks
5.4
246.2
Tackles
282.8
6.8
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

75%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -5.6

2/4 match predictions correct