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Super League | Round 24

alphr.com.au

SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • FRIDAY 29 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

128
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 63%

AI Win Probability

63%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

63%

St Helens

37%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Venue Advantage. Hull KR carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1725 vs 1702). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 1.4 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +1.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R19W
R20W
R21W
R22W
R23L

older → newer

32.0
St Helens
R19L
R20W
R21W
R22W
R23W
29.2

Avg Conceded

11.6

Hull KR

6.8

St Helens

Avg Margin

20.4

Hull KR

22.4

St Helens

Run Metres

1355

Hull KR

1296

St Helens

Clean Breaks

7.2

Hull KR

5.4

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Apr 2026HKR 52 - 10 STH
Oct 2025HKR 20 - 12 STH
Jun 2025HKR 34 - 4 STH
Mar 2025HKR 20 - 10 STH
Feb 2024HKR 40 - 20 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1725Overall1702
STH
ELO difference: +24 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

773Forwards723
Best: 1059HKR +50Best: 880
775Backs844
Best: 892STH +69Best: 1007
600Halves800
Best: 600STH +200Best: 800
1162Hooker941
HKR +221

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
STH
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
32.0pts
Avg Score
29.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
6.8pts
20.4pts
Avg Margin
22.4pts
1355.2m
Run Metres
1295.6m
7.2
Clean Breaks
5.4
279.8
Tackles
255.6
10.2
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

63%

Hull KR predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +1.4

3/4 match predictions correct