# Hull KR v St Helens — Super League Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 12 – 8 St Helens

_Hull KR survive a scare against St Helens._

Half time: 2 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 63% / St Helens 37% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 29 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (66' 1st Tipped 🎯) · St Helens: Deon Cross (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 63% | Won |
| St Helens | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Hull KR 12–8 St Helens in Super League Round 24 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two points apiece at the break, and not much to separate them beyond a Rhyse Martin penalty goal answered by Mark Percival's. Hull KR 2, St Helens 2, and Sewell Group Craven Park settled in for what looked like a genuine arm-wrestle.

The second half belonged to Martin's boot. He landed three more penalty goals in the space of fourteen minutes, at 44', 55' and 58', and by the hour mark Hull KR had turned a stalemate into an 8-2 lead without needing to cross the line once. Then Joe Burgess did what Joe Burgess had already done once in the first half: he scored again, this time at 66', to push it out to 12-2 and put real daylight between the sides.

St Helens didn't fold. Deon Cross crossed at 75', Percival added the conversion a minute later, and suddenly it was 12-8 with time still on the clock. But the deficit built across that penalty-goal spell in the second half proved too much to claw back, and Hull KR held on.

The stat sheet tells an odd story for a game decided by four points. St Helens were the tidier side by a distance, coughing up just 6 errors to Hull KR's 10, offloading 12 times to 4, and racking up 47 tackle busts against Hull KR's 30. By most measures of ball-in-hand footy, St Helens had the better of it. Yet none of that translated into points, because Hull KR were the ones finding the line, breaking it three times to St Helens' zero, and making every one of their four penalties concede count for less than St Helens' six.

That gap lines up with what the positional numbers suggested coming in. St Helens held a clear edge in the halves, 800 to 600, and in the backs, 844 to 775, which explains why they moved the ball well and racked up those tackle busts and offloads. But Hull KR's hooker rating, 1162 against 941, and their forward edge, 773 to 723, points to where the actual points came from: field position, penalties won, and Martin doing the rest with the boot.

Form-wise, Hull KR arrived on the back of four wins from five, St Helens the same with the losses at opposite ends of the run. Both sides' recent scoring averages, 32 for Hull KR and 29.2 for St Helens, promised more than the 20 points this game produced.

Alphr's model had Hull KR at 63% to win and picked the margin almost to the point, tipping them by 1.4 against an actual 4. The total was the miss, tipped at 46 and landing 26 points shy at 20, which tracks with a game that stayed error-strewn and penalty-goal heavy rather than one that opened up. Across the sheet the model went 4 from 15 on this one, but it had the right side, the right margin band, and the shape of a tight finish. Not a bad night's work, even if the scoreboard moved slower than expected.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,320** | Run metres | 1,315 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 0 |
| 30 | Tackle busts | **47** |
| 4 | Offloads | **12** |
| 10 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 6 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 1.4 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 20 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (37/100) — penalties Hull KR 4 · St Helens 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 63.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 63%, but St Helens stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 24 ELO points clear, 1725 to 1702.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Hull KR by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 6.8pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Margin | 22.4pts |
| 1355.2m | Run Metres | 1295.6m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 279.8 | Tackles | 255.6 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 32.0 |
| St Helens | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Hull KR | St Helens 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull KR | 52 – 10 | St Helens | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Hull KR | 20 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Hull KR | 34 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | St Helens | 10 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.87 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.52 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.52 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.48 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.87/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.52/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.26/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.78/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.48/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.39/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.39/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 5 | 17 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 188m/g | 172m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 92.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 69 · 22 | 66 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 610m/g | 513m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 84.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 6 | 12 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 302m/g | 315m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.4) -13% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.26) -12% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.2) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 16 in 21g | 9/10g (1·2·3·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 4/18g | 7/13g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.05 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 12/22g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 12 in 22g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 9/17g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 17 in 18g | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·4·3·0·0) | 11/17g | 18/19g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.53 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 22% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/22g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 19 in 20g | 9/10g (2·2·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 8/11g | 26/42g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.54 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/14g | 1/39g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 7/47g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 12/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/45g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/34g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 8/24g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 1/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.94 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 15 in 23g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.34 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.75 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 11 in 18g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.82 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.72 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.44 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 1/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/4g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.08 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Batchelor | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1725 · St Helens 1702 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)