# Hull FC v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 0 – 34 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over Hull FC._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 25% / Leeds Rhinos 75% · MKM Stadium · Sat, 30 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: none · Leeds Rhinos: Ryan Hall (21' 1st), Kallum Watkins (25'), Jake Connor (31'), Morgan Gannon (34'), Brodie Croft (44' Tipped ⚡), James McDonnell (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 75% | Won |
| Hull FC | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Hull FC 0–34 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 24 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos overran Hull FC 34–0 at MKM Stadium.

Ryan Hall opened the scoring; Leeds Rhinos scored through Ryan Hall, Kallum Watkins, Jake Connor, Morgan Gannon, Brodie Croft and James McDonnell.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. The model went 2/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 75.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 75.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 75.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 18 | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos 75% ✗ |
| 2026 | R5 | Hull FC | 24 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 68% ✗ |
| 2025 | R11 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 16 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 12 – 18 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Leeds Rhinos | 68 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.61 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.65 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 6th there (1.26 conceded/game). Key man: Miller, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.61/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 5th) | 0.74/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.22/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th) | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.78/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 5th) | 1.3/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 11 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 136m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 92.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 34 | 47 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 392m/g | 578m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 19.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 85.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 6 | 15 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 365m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10%
**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Fullbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zak Hardaker | FB | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/3g | 11/20g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.22 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.87 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/14g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.46 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.58 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 22 in 23g | 13/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·3·4·1·1) | 3/4g | 18/22g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.57 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.23 AI 34% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 2/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 8 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Watts | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 5/46g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 8 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/18g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/37g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/16g | 6% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 9 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.64 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.86 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 10 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/10g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.24 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Max Simpson | CE | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 9/17g | 4/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/8g | 0/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.29 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.38 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/10g | 2/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Presley Cassell | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 7 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 2/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 14 | James Bentley | INT | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.23 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Joe Shorrocks | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)