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Super League | Round 24

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 30 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

440
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Catalans Dragons at 50%

AI Win Probability

50%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

50%

Wigan Warriors

50%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wigan Warriors a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 384-point ELO rating advantage (1708 vs 1324). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 3.5 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

-26.5%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -3.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R19L
R20L
R21L
R22L
R23W

older → newer

18.0
Wigan Warriors
R19L
R20W
R21W
R22L
R23W
22.8

Avg Conceded

22.8

Catalans Dragons

16.0

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

-4.8

Catalans Dragons

6.8

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

793

Catalans Dragons

1112

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

2.8

Catalans Dragons

4.2

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Jul 2025CAT 18 - 28 WIG
May 2025CAT 0 - 48 WIG
Feb 2024CAT 8 - 30 WIG
Aug 2024CAT 18 - 26 WIG
Feb 2023CAT 46 - 22 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1324Overall1708
WIG
ELO difference: -384 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

857Forwards876
Best: 1045WIG +20Best: 1195
1138Backs1020
Best: 1360CAT +117Best: 1300
631Halves923
Best: 631WIG +292Best: 923
1036Hooker604
CAT +432

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
WIG
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
18.0pts
Avg Score
22.8pts
22.8pts
Avg Conceded
16.0pts
-4.8pts
Avg Margin
6.8pts
793.2m
Run Metres
1111.8m
2.8
Clean Breaks
4.2
226.8
Tackles
301.6
7.8
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

50%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -3.5

2/4 match predictions correct