# Catalans Dragons v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 4 – 40 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors put Catalans Dragons to the sword._

Half time: 4 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 50% / Wigan Warriors 50% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 30 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Arthur Romano (38') · Wigan Warriors: Liam Marshall (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (22' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (27' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (44' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (65' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (75' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (79' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 50% | Lost |
| Wigan Warriors | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.5 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Catalans Dragons 4–40 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 24 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six line breaks to one. That's the number that tells you everything about how Wigan Warriors ended up walking out of Stade Gilbert Brutus with a 40-4 win over Catalans Dragons, and it's a fair summary of a night where the home side simply couldn't get their hands on the ball in space.

Liam Marshall got things moving in the 7th minute, and by the 28th minute, with Harry Smith slotting his third conversion, it was 0-16. Catalans got a face-saving four-pointer through Arthur Romano right on the stroke of half-time, making it 4-16 at the break, but that was as close as the scoreline ever got. Wigan Warriors then piled on four more tries after the break, with Jai Field, Zach Eckersley twice and a third Marshall try in the 79th minute turning a comfortable lead into a rout.

The gap in the collision and in class showed up everywhere you looked. Wigan ran for 1,098 metres to Catalans' 754, busted 27 tackles to 18, and offloaded nine times to five. Catalans coughed up nine errors to Wigan's four, and every one of those extra Wigan line breaks came from somewhere: quick hands, go-forward, and a Catalans defence that couldn't get its line speed sorted after conceding the first two tries inside 22 minutes.

Oddly enough, Catalans won the penalty count, conceding just three to Wigan's eight. Discipline wasn't the problem. Execution was.

The positional numbers pre-match flagged exactly where this was heading. Wigan's halves pairing rated at 923 against Catalans' 631, and a gap that size in the pivots was always going to show up in how the ball got played through the middle of the park. Catalans actually had the stronger back line on paper, 1138 to 1020, but with go-forward that hard to find and a halves mismatch that size, the backs never got a real look at the ball in good ship. Catalans' one edge, at hooker, 1036 to 604, wasn't enough to change the shape of the game.

Form lines back it up too. Wigan came in on a 3-2 win-loss split across their last five, averaging 22.8 points scored and conceding just 16. Catalans had won only once in their last five, averaging 18 scored and leaking 22.8. Put those two form lines in a room together and this is roughly what you'd expect to get.

Alphr's model called the winner, Wigan Warriors at 50 per cent, and picked the total to within four points, tipping 41 against an actual 44. Where it fell over was the margin: 3.5 points predicted, 36 delivered. A near-even ratings gap of 1324 to 1708 pointed to a competitive contest, not a procession, and this one turned into a procession. Four from fifteen on the finer detail this week, a reminder that picking the right team is only half the job when a match like this one runs away in the second half.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 754 | Run metres | **1,098** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 18 | Tackle busts | **27** |
| 5 | Offloads | **9** |
| 9 | Errors | **4** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 6/7 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | 4 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. Wigan Warriors led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 3 · Wigan Warriors 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 50.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Catalans Dragons and Wigan Warriors. The model can't split them, landing on Wigan Warriors at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 384 ELO points clear, 1708 to 1324. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 793.2m | Run Metres | 1111.8m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 226.8 | Tackles | 301.6 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 18.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 50 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 16 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 28 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 48 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 8 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.78 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 4th there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.43 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 11th there (1.96 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 19 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.22/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.35/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.78/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.43/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.52/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 7th) | 1.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 25 | 22 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 32m/g | 137m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 88.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 44 | 68 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 363m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 18 | 14 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 176m/g | 351m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Arthur Romano | WG | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 8/36g | 12% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 5 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 6 | Ugo Tison | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Tariq Sims | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 5 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 4/42g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/36g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Franck Maria | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/39g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/7g | 15% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 19 in 21g | 6/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 2/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.28 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 44' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 10 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.52 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.86 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' 75' |
| 3 | Kian Mcdermott | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 13 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 1/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.66 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 9 in 21g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/12g | 2/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.28 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 22' 79' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 3/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.31 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Harvie Hill | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.01 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 2/5g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.63 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 7 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.84 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1324 · Wigan Warriors 1708 · ELO difference: 384 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r24-catalans-dragons-v-wigan-warriors
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)