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Super League | Round 23

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SUNDAY 24 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

442
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

76%

Wakefield Trinity

24%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 128-point ELO rating advantage (1675 vs 1547). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 4.2 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.1%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +4.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R18W
R19L
R20W
R21W
R22L

older → newer

20.0
Wakefield Trinity
R18L
R19W
R20W
R21L
R22W
24.6

Avg Conceded

17.6

Wigan Warriors

14.8

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

2.4

Wigan Warriors

9.8

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1021

Wigan Warriors

939

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

3.6

Wigan Warriors

2.6

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Jun 2025WIG 10 - 16 WAK
Jul 2023WIG 26 - 27 WAK
May 2023WIG 22 - 6 WAK
Mar 2023WIG 60 - 0 WAK
Aug 2022WIG 12 - 30 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1675Overall1547
WAK
ELO difference: +128 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

762Forwards624
Best: 971WIG +137Best: 673
756Backs744
Best: 836WIG +12Best: 840
836Halves646
Best: 836WIG +190Best: 646
612Hooker600
WIG +12

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
WAK
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
20.0pts
Avg Score
24.6pts
17.6pts
Avg Conceded
14.8pts
2.4pts
Avg Margin
9.8pts
1021.4m
Run Metres
938.8m
3.6
Clean Breaks
2.6
306.2
Tackles
242.6
10.4
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

76%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +4.2

2/4 match predictions correct