# Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 44 – 2 Wakefield Trinity

_Wigan Warriors put Wakefield Trinity to the sword._

Half time: 18 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 76% / Wakefield Trinity 24% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sun, 24 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Adam Keighran (15' 1st), Bevan French (23' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (31' Tipped ⚡), Junior Nsemba (44'), Jai Field (53' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (65' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (71'), Sam Walters (78') · Wakefield Trinity: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 76% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Wigan Warriors 44–2 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 23 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen points to two at the break told you Wigan Warriors were on top. It didn't tell you they were about to add another 26 without reply.

That's what happened at The Brick Community Stadium. Wigan led 18-2 at half-time and simply kept going, closing it out 44-2. Wakefield Trinity's only points came from a Max Jowitt penalty goal in the 39th minute. Everything else on the board belonged to the home side, start to finish.

The first half was already lopsided. Adam Keighran opened the scoring in the 15th minute and kicked his own conversion, Bevan French crossed in the 23rd, Zach Eckersley got the first of his two in the 31st. Wakefield's penalty goal on the stroke of half-time was the only thing keeping it respectable. It didn't stay that way. Junior Nsemba scored four minutes into the second half, Jai Field followed just after the hour, Eckersley grabbed his second in the 65th, then Liam Marshall and Sam Walters piled on late tries in the 71st and 78th to turn a comfortable lead into a rout.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard says. Wigan ran for 1,352 metres to Wakefield's 775, broke the line eight times to one, and racked up 30 tackle busts against 17. Nine offloads to three shows a side finding space and using it. Wakefield's discipline was actually the tidier of the two, six penalties conceded to Wigan's nine, but with the ball they were error-prone when it mattered, coughing it up 11 times to Wigan's six. Field position and possession add up fast when the gap is that wide.

Individually, Eckersley's brace stood out, and Harry Smith's night with the boot did plenty of the heavy lifting too, landing conversions after four of the second-half tries. Keighran's opening try and successful kick set the tone early, and having seven different try scorers across the 80 minutes says the points were shared around rather than manufactured by one or two players carrying the load.

Wakefield came in off a decent recent run, three wins from five, and actually arrived with the better average margin over that stretch at 9.8 points to Wigan's 2.4. None of that showed up here. The pre-match numbers pointed to a gap: Wigan's halves rated at 836 against Wakefield's 646, forwards 762 to 624. That sort of difference in the engine room and the spine tends to tell on the scoreboard, and it did.

Alphr's model backed Wigan Warriors at 76 percent and got the winner right. Where it fell over was the margin, tipped at 4.2 points on a combined total of 38. The actual gap was 42. Picking the right team is one thing, picking the size of the beating is another, and this one blew well past anything the model had in mind. Four from fifteen on this match, and a reminder that even a clear favourite can still outrun the numbers by a distance.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,352** | Run metres | 775 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **9** | Offloads | 3 |
| **6** | Errors | 11 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 0 |
| 6/8 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 6 | Errors | 11 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 42 points. Wigan Warriors led 18–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 9 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 4 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 76% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 128 ELO points clear, 1675 to 1547.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Wigan Warriors to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 24.6pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | 9.8pts |
| 1021.4m | Run Metres | 938.8m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 306.2 | Tackles | 242.6 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 20.0 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R18 L · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L · R22 W | 24.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 33 | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors 71% ✗ |
| 2026 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors 82% ✓ |
| 2026 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 48 | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity 62% ✗ |
| 2025 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2023 | R18 | Wakefield Trinity | 27 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.09 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Miski, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.91 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 4th there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 7th) | 0.59/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.41/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 1.09/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.05/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 7 | 13 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 139m/g | 92m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 63 · 22 | 37 · 41 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 507m/g | 416m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 12 | 21 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 351m/g | 324m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.2) +45% · Wingers 1.24/g (lg 0.89) +39%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.26) -12% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 20g | 6/10g (1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 34/43g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.54 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 8 in 22g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 8/21g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $24.96 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 65' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 6/20g | 34% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 13 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 20/39g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.49 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.76 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 15/13g | 45/59g | 46% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 11/9g | 47/43g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $24.96 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 12/60g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/34g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/56g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/18g | 18% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/17g | 21/58g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/44g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/29g | 26% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/17g | 5/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/26g | 4% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.66 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.89 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.56 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 8/15g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.32 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Storton | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.58 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 7 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1675 · Wakefield Trinity 1547 · ELO difference: 128 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)