# St Helens v Hull FC — Super League Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 16 – 10 Hull FC

_St Helens march all over Hull FC in a tight one._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 78% / Hull FC 22% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 22 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Morgan Knowles (6' 1st), Moses Mbye (62') · Hull FC: Davy Litten (30'), Lewis Martin (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 78% | Won |
| Hull FC | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

St Helens 16–10 Hull FC in Super League Round 23 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens held off Hull FC 16–10 at The BrewDog Stadium. St Helens led 8–6 at half-time and held on.

Morgan Knowles opened the scoring; St Helens crossed through Morgan Knowles and Moses Mbye; Hull FC scored through Davy Litten and Lewis Martin.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Helens by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 26 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 3/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 77.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — model probability 77.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 77.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 7 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 78% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 179 ELO points clear, 1689 to 1510.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has St Helens by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 4.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Margin | 18.0pts |
| 1307.8m | Run Metres | 1296.2m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 6.4 |
| 274.4 | Tackles | 257.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 27.2 |
| Hull FC | R18 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | St Helens | 18 – 32 | Hull FC | St Helens 63% ✗ |
| 2026 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 24 | St Helens | St Helens 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull FC | 6 – 13 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 58 – 0 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R20 | Hull FC | 6 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 6th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.45 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 21 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.23/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.27/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.82/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.59/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 5 | 10 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 89.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 66 · 20 | 47 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 513m/g | 391m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.2/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 80% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 15 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 318m/g | 373m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.3/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.4) -15% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 13/10g | 34/59g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 17 in 13g | 14/10g (0·4·0·3·2·0·0·1·2·2) | 2/1g | 7/7g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.20 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 11 in 17g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/9g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 8/13g | 20/47g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.28 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/6g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 15 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 11/10g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.94 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.88 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 62' |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/18g | 10/55g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/17g | 7/24g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.45 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/54g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 7/34g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 5/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 6' |
| 14 | Jonny Lomax | INT | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 14/62g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Batchelor | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 15/44g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/40g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/31g | 4% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zak Hardaker | FB | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 3/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/16g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 27% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 21 in 22g | 13/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·3·4·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.41 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Jordan Rapana | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.86 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.39 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Brad Fash | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 6 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Ed Chamberlain | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1689 · Hull FC 1510 · ELO difference: 179 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — St Helens predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)