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Super League | Round 23

alphr.com.au

THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 22 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

1610
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

78%

Hull

22%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 179-point ELO rating advantage (1689 vs 1510). The margin model predicts St Helens by 7.0 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.20

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.8%

Line / Spread

St Helens +7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R18W
R19L
R20W
R21W
R22W

older → newer

27.2
Hull
R18W
R19W
R20L
R21W
R22W
32.0

Avg Conceded

4.8

St Helens

14.0

Hull

Avg Margin

22.4

St Helens

18.0

Hull

Run Metres

1308

St Helens

1296

Hull

Clean Breaks

5.6

St Helens

6.4

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
Apr 2026STH 24 - 14 HUL
Jul 2025STH 13 - 6 HUL
Feb 2024STH 58 - 0 HUL
Jul 2024STH 46 - 6 HUL
Sep 2023STH 30 - 12 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1689Overall1510
HUL
ELO difference: +179 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

844Forwards805
Best: 1018STH +39Best: 1164
1175Backs904
Best: 1439STH +271Best: 1038
1285Halves1051
Best: 1285STH +235Best: 1051
1070Hooker737
STH +333

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
HUL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
27.2pts
Avg Score
32.0pts
4.8pts
Avg Conceded
14.0pts
22.4pts
Avg Margin
18.0pts
1307.8m
Run Metres
1296.2m
5.6
Clean Breaks
6.4
274.4
Tackles
257.4
9.0
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

78%

St Helens predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +7.0

3/4 match predictions correct