# Leigh Leopards v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 38 – 6 Salford Red Devils

_Leigh Leopards put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 89% / Salford Red Devils 11% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 22 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (22'), Ethan O'Neill (38' Tipped ⚡), Josh Charnley (58' Tipped ⚡), Matt Davis (62'), Bailey Hodgson (67'), Josh Charnley (71' Tipped ⚡), AJ Towse (75' Tipped ⚡) · Salford Red Devils: Joe Mellor (18' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 89% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.2 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:17 pm_

Leigh Leopards 38–6 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 23 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Salford Red Devils actually had the ball in better order all night. Nine errors to Leigh's nine sounds even until you check the other column: Salford handled it cleanly enough to cough it up only 5 times, well down on their season average of 4.5 turnovers a game if you're being generous, and streets ahead of Leigh's 9. On another night that discipline with the footy buys you a result. Not this one.

For about twenty minutes it looked like it might. Joe Mellor crossed in the 18th minute and Rowan Milnes added the extras a minute later, and Salford led 6-0 against a side rated 1617 to their 1143 on Alphr's numbers. Given Salford had shipped an average of 53.2 points a game across their last five, a 6-0 lead here was a genuine result in itself.

It didn't last. Tesi Niu got Leigh on the board in the 22nd, Ben McNamara's boot levelled it up, and Ethan O'Neill went over right on the stroke of half-time to put Leigh in front 12-6 at the break. Salford still had a game on their hands at that point. What followed in the second half wasn't really a contest.

Leigh scored five unanswered tries after the break, Josh Charnley grabbing a double either side of efforts from Matt Davis, Bailey Hodgson and AJ Towse, and by the 77th minute it was 38-6. The gap between the two sides at half-time was six points. By full-time it was thirty-two.

The stat sheet explains why Salford couldn't hold on once Leigh found their range. Run metres finished 1,412 to 461, a gap that's hard to overcome no matter how tidy you are with the ball. Leigh broke the line 8 times to Salford's 1 and racked up 31 tackle busts to 9. That's not a game Salford lost through carelessness, it's one they lost through territory and go-forward, exactly what you'd expect given Leigh's forward pack was rated 930 against Salford's 809 coming in.

Salford's one edge on paper, that 1000-rated hooker against Leigh's 600, and a stronger-rated backline at 939 to 867, never really got the ball to do the damage those numbers suggested it could. With Leigh's forwards dominating collisions and denying quick ball, the class out wide had nowhere to work.

Leigh came in on the back of three wins from five and an average winning margin of plus-4, useful form but nothing that screamed a 32-point beatdown. Salford arrived having lost four of their last five by an average of 43 points. Put simply, the sides were trending in opposite directions, and Saturday night just confirmed it.

Alphr's model had this one right in the broad strokes: Leigh favourites at 89 percent, tipped to win by 20.2 in a game projected to total 50 points. The actual margin blew out past that to 32, but the model's shape held up reasonably well, the combined score of 44 sitting within six of the prediction. Not perfect, but not far off either, on a night the model finished 4 from 15 across the card.

Salford leave with the two points nobody remembers and a stat column, low errors, that says more about discipline than about the result. Leigh leave with six tries, a hundred-metre gap in territory, and very little argument to be had about who deserved it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,412** | Run metres | 461 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 9 |
| **9** | Offloads | 3 |
| 9 | Errors | **5** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 9 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 89% probability. The predicted margin of 20.2 was reasonable against the actual 32-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 44, within 6 points. Leigh Leopards led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · Salford Red Devils 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 88.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 20 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 89% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 475 ELO points clear, 1617 to 1143. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 20.2, with the two sides combining for about 50. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 53.2pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | -43.2pts |
| 1196.6m | Run Metres | 592.5m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.5 |
| 307.0 | Tackles | 207.3 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 4.5 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 18.0 |
| Salford Red Devils | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R9 | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 28 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 32 – 22 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 40 – 12 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 14 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | R22 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.45 conceded/game). Key man: Niu, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.36 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (0.68 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 5th) | 0.27/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.41/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 7th) | 0.41/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.82/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.91/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.68/g (def 6th) | 0.36/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.45/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 7 | 3 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 146m/g | 89m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 30 | 11 · 87 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 585m/g | 227m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 84.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 12 | 5 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 364m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.26) +81% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.19) +58% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 3% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 10 in 20g | 7/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 7/12g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.04 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.41 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 23% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/15g | 5/13g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 13/15g | 24/31g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.53 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.93 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' 71' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 3 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 7/35g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.67 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.91 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ben McNamara | HB | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Hughes | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 3/29g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Matt Davis | HK | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 4/32g | 8% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Andrew Badrock | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.89 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | AJ Towse | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.71 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/23g | 2/18g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declan Murphy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Neil djeukam | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Louix Gorman | CE | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Darbyshire | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Joe Mellor | HB | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/16g | 22% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 8 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Finley Yates | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Justin Sangare | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Leon Ruan | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Emmanuel Waine | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1617 · Salford Red Devils 1143 · ELO difference: 475 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 20 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)