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Super League | Round 23

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 22 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

386
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 89%

AI Win Probability

89%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

89%

Salford Red Devils

11%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 89%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Leigh Leopards carry a 475-point ELO rating advantage (1617 vs 1143). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 20.2 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.13

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +20.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R18W
R19W
R20W
R21L
R22L

older → newer

18.0
Salford Red Devils
R18W
R19L
R20L
R21L
R22L
10.0

Avg Conceded

14.0

Leigh Leopards

53.2

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

4.0

Leigh Leopards

-43.2

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1197

Leigh Leopards

474

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

3.6

Leigh Leopards

2.0

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
May 2025LEI 28 - 6 SAL
Feb 2024LEI 22 - 32 SAL
Feb 2024LEI 40 - 12 SAL
Feb 2024LEI 14 - 6 SAL
Aug 2024LEI 26 - 0 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1617Overall1143
SAL
ELO difference: +475 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

930Forwards809
Best: 1254LEI +121Best: 1024
867Backs939
Best: 1043SAL +71Best: 1000
801Halves741
Best: 801LEI +60Best: 741
600Hooker1000
SAL +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
SAL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
18.0pts
Avg Score
10.0pts
14.0pts
Avg Conceded
53.2pts
4.0pts
Avg Margin
-43.2pts
1196.6m
Run Metres
474.0m
3.6
Clean Breaks
2.0
307.0
Tackles
165.8
8.2
Errors
3.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

89%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 20 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: +20.2

3/4 match predictions correct