# Leeds Rhinos v Hull KR — Super League Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 28 – 6 Hull KR

_Leeds Rhinos stampede past Hull KR._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 64% / Hull KR 36% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Thu, 21 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Jake Connor (12' 1st), Presley Cassell (15'), Lachlan Miller (25' Tipped ⚡), Harry Newman (68') · Hull KR: Tom Davies (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 64% | Won |
| Hull KR | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 28–6 Hull KR in Super League Round 23 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen minutes did the damage. Jake Connor opened the scoring in the 12th, Presley Cassell followed three minutes later, and by the 26th minute Lachlan Miller had crossed too, with Connor converting the lot to make it 18-0 at half-time. Hull KR hadn't got near the board in that opening burst. That's the passage that decided this one, long before the full-time score of 28-6 made it look like a formality.

Because from there it basically was. Leeds Rhinos didn't add another try until the 68th minute, when Harry Newman finished it off, but they kept the scoreboard ticking over in between: a Connor penalty goal in the 63rd minute stretched it to 20-0, and another after Newman's try made it 28-0 in the 73rd. Hull KR never found a way back into the contest until Tom Davies scored their only try in the 76th, with Rhyse Martin's conversion making the final margin 22 points. A dead-cat bounce, nothing more.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests. Leeds Rhinos ran for 1,184 metres to Hull KR's 1,092, but the bigger tell is what they did with the ball in hand: six line breaks to two, 60 tackle busts to 34, 16 offloads to seven. That's not a team grinding out territory, that's a team finding space and exploiting it repeatedly.

Discipline told a similar story. Leeds Rhinos conceded just four penalties to Hull KR's nine, and coughed up the ball only six times against nine Hull KR errors. When one side is conceding fewer penalties and fewer errors while also making more line breaks, there's no mystery left in a 28-6 scoreline.

Jake Connor was the difference-maker with the boot and the ball, opening the scoring and then converting three tries plus landing two penalty goals, ten points from the tee on top of his own try.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,184** | Run metres | 1,092 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **60** | Tackle busts | 34 |
| **16** | Offloads | 7 |
| **6** | Errors | 9 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 6 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.4 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 4 · Hull KR 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 64.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 1 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 64%, but Hull KR stay live at 36%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull KR sit 108 ELO points clear, 1774 to 1666, so the model is backing Leeds Rhinos against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leeds Rhinos.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.4pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 9.4pts | Avg Conceded | 11.6pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Margin | 21.2pts |
| 1309.6m | Run Metres | 1386.0m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 293.6 | Tackles | 272.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W | 28.4 |
| Hull KR | R18 L · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Leeds Rhinos | 34 – 8 | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Hull KR | 6 – 58 | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR 71% ✗ |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull KR | 8 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull KR | 26 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.45 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.68 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.77/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.68/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.95/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.77/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.82/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.32/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.41/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 6 | 26 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 137m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 29 | 68 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 580m/g | 616m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.6/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 82.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 5 | 17 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 328m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.26) -8% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.13) -15%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.4) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 6/22g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.02 AI 25% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $31.54 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 9 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 10/22g | 32% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 9/17g | 10/19g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/7g | 4/12g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/9g | 7/21g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.83 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/16g | 4/12g | 18% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 8 | Presley Cassell | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 7 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 3/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Andy Ackers | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 3/21g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/9g | 2/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Littlewood | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/13g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 15 in 20g | 8/10g (0·1·2·3·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 10/15g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.94 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 12 in 21g | 8/10g (2·1·2·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.73 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.44 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 17 in 17g | 13/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·2·4·3·0) | 6/16g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.37 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.78 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 19 in 19g | 10/10g (1·2·2·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/2g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.12 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/11g | 1/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.02 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 5/13g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.04 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dean Hadley | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/16g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1666 · Hull KR 1774 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)