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Super League | Round 23

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • THURSDAY 21 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

286
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 64%

AI Win Probability

64%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

64%

Hull KR

36%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Hull KR are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1774 vs 1666). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 1.4 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @2.60

Winner ✓

Edge

+25.8%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -1.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R18L
R19W
R20L
R21W
R22W

older → newer

28.4
Hull KR
R18L
R19W
R20W
R21W
R22W
32.8

Avg Conceded

9.4

Leeds Rhinos

11.6

Hull KR

Avg Margin

19.0

Leeds Rhinos

21.2

Hull KR

Run Metres

1310

Leeds Rhinos

1386

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

4.6

Leeds Rhinos

7.2

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Mar 2026LEE 58 - 6 HKR
Jul 2025LEE 14 - 8 HKR
May 2025LEE 14 - 20 HKR
Sep 2024LEE 16 - 26 HKR
Jul 2024LEE 12 - 20 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1666Overall1774
HKR
ELO difference: -108 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

976Forwards872
Best: 1192LEE +104Best: 1206
1228Backs910
Best: 1517LEE +317Best: 1052
1287Halves698
Best: 1287LEE +589Best: 698
643Hooker944
HKR +301

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
HKR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
28.4pts
Avg Score
32.8pts
9.4pts
Avg Conceded
11.6pts
19.0pts
Avg Margin
21.2pts
1309.6m
Run Metres
1386.0m
4.6
Clean Breaks
7.2
293.6
Tackles
272.2
11.4
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

64%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -1.4

1/4 match predictions correct