Catalans Dragons
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
64%
Castleford Tigers
36%
AI Match Overview
Catalans Dragons hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Catalans Dragons carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1282 vs 1255). Recent form favours Castleford Tigers with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 9.3 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Catalans Dragons to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.2%
Line / Spread
Catalans Dragons +9.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R18L R19L R20L R21L R22L older → newer | 14.4 |
Castleford Tigers | R18L R19W R20L R21L R22L | 10.8 |
Avg Conceded
26.8
Catalans Dragons
36.0
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-12.4
Catalans Dragons
-25.2
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
762
Catalans Dragons
822
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
2.4
Catalans Dragons
2.4
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.3