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Super League | Round 22

alphr.com.au

THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 15 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

610
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Hull KRFavourite

Wigan Warriors

30%

Hull KR

70%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wigan Warriors. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1755 vs 1695). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 5.2 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @2.10

Winner ✓

Edge

+22.1%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -5.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R17L
R18W
R19L
R20W
R21W

older → newer

20.4
Hull KR
R17L
R18L
R19W
R20W
R21W
32.4

Avg Conceded

19.2

Wigan Warriors

13.2

Hull KR

Avg Margin

1.2

Wigan Warriors

19.2

Hull KR

Run Metres

1057

Wigan Warriors

1385

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.4

Wigan Warriors

6.6

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
May 2026WIG 4 - 62 HKR
Oct 2025WIG 6 - 24 HKR
Apr 2025WIG 28 - 12 HKR
Feb 2024WIG 9 - 2 HKR
Feb 2024WIG 10 - 26 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1755 vs 1695), but the market favours Wigan Warriors (@1.91).

The model sides with ELO, Hull KR predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1695Overall1755
HKR
ELO difference: -60 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

802Forwards847
Best: 1099HKR +45Best: 1119
735Backs1115
Best: 824HKR +380Best: 1314
610Halves1140
Best: 610HKR +530Best: 1140
822Hooker995
HKR +173

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
HKR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
32.4pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
13.2pts
1.2pts
Avg Margin
19.2pts
1056.6m
Run Metres
1385.4m
3.4
Clean Breaks
6.6
312.0
Tackles
274.2
9.8
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

70%

Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: -5.2

4/4 match predictions correct