# Wigan Warriors v Hull KR — Super League Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 6 – 10 Hull KR

_Hull KR survive a scare against Wigan Warriors._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 30% / Hull KR 70% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 15 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Adam Keighran (73') · Hull KR: Dean Hadley (9' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 70% | Won |
| Wigan Warriors | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Wigan Warriors 6–10 Hull KR in Super League Round 22 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR led 0-8 at the break and by full time the margin had barely shifted, 10-6. That's the shape of it in one line, but how Wigan clawed back into the contest deserves more than a footnote.

Dean Hadley got Hull KR going in the 9th minute, Rhyse Martin added the conversion two minutes later, and by the 35th minute Martin's penalty goal had it at 0-8. Wigan went into the sheds with nothing on the scoreboard, chasing a deficit built almost entirely in that opening stretch.

The second half didn't flip the script. Martin slotted another penalty in the 57th to push it to 0-10, and Wigan still hadn't troubled the board. Adam Keighran finally got them on the sheet in the 73rd minute, converting his own try a minute later to make it 6-10. That's as close as it got: a long scoreless stretch for Wigan, then six points in a hurry at the death.

The stat sheet explains why Wigan never really threatened. Hull KR ran for 1,258 metres to Wigan's 1,107, and the line break count, 5 to 2, shows where the real separation happened. Wigan actually won the tackle bust count, 41 to 36, which suggests they were finding metres through traffic rather than through space. Breaking tackles is one thing, breaking the line is another, and Hull KR had the clear edge in the column that matters more.

Discipline played its part too. Wigan conceded 6 penalties to Hull KR's 3, and in a match that finished as a 4-point contest, an extra penalty goal chance or two is exactly the sort of thing that shows up on the final margin. Errors ran the same way, Wigan coughing it up 12 times to Hull KR's 9. Offloads were close, 7 to 8, so it wasn't a gulf everywhere, just in the areas that decide close games.

None of this should surprise anyone who'd looked at the numbers going in. Hull KR came in rated well clear in the positions that tend to decide these contests: 1140 to 610 in the halves and 1115 to 735 in the backs. Their form over the last five games had them scoring 32.4 points on average with a margin of 19.2, against Wigan's 20.4 points scored and a wafer-thin 1.2 average margin. This was always shaping as a tough ask for Wigan to stay in touch, and a comfortable enough job for Hull KR to control from range.

Alphr's model backed Hull KR at 70% and picked them by 5.2 points on a projected total of 39. The margin call landed close, Hull KR actually won by 4. The total undershot badly though, just 16 points scored against a projected 39, so the model had the right team and roughly the right gap but not the shootout it expected. A tighter, lower-scoring night than forecast, but the direction of travel was never really in doubt after that first half hour.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,107 | Run metres | **1,258** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 36 |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 12 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 5.2 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 16 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 39. The model went 2/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (41/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 6 · Hull KR 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 69.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 5 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 70% to see off Wigan Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 60 ELO points clear, 1755 to 1695.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 39. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 19.2pts |
| 1056.6m | Run Metres | 1385.4m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.6 |
| 312.0 | Tackles | 274.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 20.4 |
| Hull KR | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Wigan Warriors | 46 – 0 | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors 66% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Hull KR | 62 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | GF | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Hull KR | 12 – 28 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 9 – 2 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.48 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.57 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 7th) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.48/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.48/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.48/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 7 | 26 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 140m/g | 191m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 63 · 22 | 68 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 612m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 14/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 83% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 16 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 358m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.26) -8% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.13) -15%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.26) -15% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 34/42g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 9/8g | 30/28g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.57 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.32 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 8 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 8/20g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 13 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 7/12g | 20/38g | 40% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 20/15g | 45/58g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Keighran | 5/8 | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/19g | 30% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 12/59g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 1/33g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/55g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/20g | 21/57g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/43g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 5/22g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/27g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/25g | 4% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 12 in 20g | 9/10g (1·2·1·2·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.76 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 15 in 19g | 10/10g (2·0·1·2·3·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | James Batchelor | CE | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 17 in 16g | 13/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·2·4·3) | 3/9g | 3/8g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.46 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.40 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Arthur Mourgue | 5/8 | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 19 in 18g | 11/10g (1·1·2·2·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 2/10g | 1/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.22 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.69 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/14g | 1/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.51 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1755 vs 1695), but the market favours Wigan Warriors (@1.91). The model sides with ELO, Hull KR predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1695 · Hull KR 1755 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)