# Warrington Wolves v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 30 – 22 Catalans Dragons

_Warrington Wolves surge back to run down Catalans Dragons from 10 down._

Half time: 12 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 67% / Catalans Dragons 33% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Thu, 14 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Zack Gardner (11' Tipped ⚡), Jake Thewlis (38' Tipped ⚡), Sam Stone (45' Tipped ⚡), Jake Thewlis (68' Tipped ⚡), Josh Thewlis (73' Tipped ⚡) · Catalans Dragons: Tommy Makinson (3' 1st), Matthieu Laguerre (15'), Tommy Makinson (18' 1st), Tommy Makinson (29' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 67% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Warrington Wolves 30–22 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 22 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a game of footy, and Halliwell Jones Stadium got both. Catalans Dragons wanted to play with the ball in hand and ambition to burn, breaking the line four times to two and racking up 26 tackle busts to Warrington's 17. Warrington Wolves wanted to just hang onto it, and did, coughing up only 7 errors to Catalans' 8. By full time it was Warrington's patience that had the trophy, winning 30-22.

It didn't look that way early. Tommy Makinson crossed inside three minutes to get Catalans rolling, and by the 30th minute they'd banked four tries to Warrington's one, with Makinson grabbing his third and Matthieu Laguerre chiming in as well. Warrington went to the break down 12-22, doing enough to stay in it with a Zack Gardner try but otherwise chasing shadows.

The second half was a different contest entirely. Jake Thewlis crossed just before half-time to get the deficit back to two scores, Sam Stone followed early in the second half to make it 18-22, and then Warrington just kept coming. Jake Thewlis grabbed his second in the 68th minute to level it at 22-all, and Josh Thewlis put them in front for good five minutes later. Marc Sneyd didn't miss a conversion all night, and that reliability off the tee was worth six points on its own.

The running stats tell you how Warrington ground it out. They finished with 722 run metres to Catalans' 695, a modest edge but one built on carrying the ball up without giving it back. Discipline mattered too: Warrington conceded just 3 penalties to Catalans' 5, and in a game this tight, extra sets and field position add up.

Catalans, for their part, did plenty right. Four line breaks and 26 tackle busts is the kind of output that should win most games, and Makinson's hat-trick was the difference between a competitive scoreline and a blowout. But 4 offloads to Warrington's solitary one suggests a side happy to play loose with the ball, and 8 errors compared to Warrington's 7 meant that ambition occasionally handed possession straight back.

The form line coming in had Catalans on a five-game losing skid, averaging just 11.2 points a game and shipping 29.6, so the fast start would have surprised nobody watching Warrington's recent stumbles, an WWLLL run of their own. What actually happened was Warrington's superior hooker rating, 1302 to Catalans' 830, and a genuine forward edge, 828 to 779, eventually told in the arm-wrestle after the break.

Alphr's model had Warrington favourites at 67% and picked the margin at 7.4 points against an actual gap of 8, about as close as a pre-match number gets. It didn't see the half-time scoreline coming, not that any margin model claims to know when the points land, but the final shape of the result matched the read closely enough to trust the process. Six from fifteen on the finer detail isn't the sharpest night out, but the shape of the win, and the size of it, both landed within a point.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **722** | Run metres | 695 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 17 | Tackle busts | **26** |
| 1 | Offloads | **4** |
| **7** | Errors | 8 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 7 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 7.4 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Warrington Wolves trailed 12–22 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–22. The model went 6/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Catalans Dragons 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 7 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 67% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 134 ELO points clear, 1433 to 1299. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Catalans Dragons.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 7.4, with the two sides combining for about 38. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 11.2pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 964.4m | Run Metres | 720.4m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 1.6 |
| 247.0 | Tackles | 237.2 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 19.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 11.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 16 | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves 73% ✓ |
| 2026 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 22 | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 20 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 32 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.1 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.76 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.9/g (def 8th) | 0.24/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.76/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.14/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.86/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.38/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 4 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 112m/g | 33m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 93.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 34 | 15 · 40 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 312m/g | 364m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 85.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 15 | 2 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 266m/g | 173m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.19) +37% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · 2nd Rows 0.31/g (lg 0.26) +19% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefan Ratchford | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 9 in 19g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 23/45g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.53 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.89 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| 3 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/22g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Zack Gardner | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 4/6g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.53 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.95 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 68' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 3/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/20g | 12/38g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.54 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/18g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/51g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Ryan Matterson | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 14/61g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 4/25g | 6% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.78 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 2/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Luke Thomas | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/19g | 8% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 6/6g | 38% | — | 🏉 3' 18' 29' |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Franck Maria | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/2g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.03 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.55 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1433 · Catalans Dragons 1299 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)