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Super League | Round 22

alphr.com.au

HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • THURSDAY 14 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

3022
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

67%

Catalans Dragons

33%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warrington Wolves carry a 134-point ELO rating advantage (1433 vs 1299). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 7.4 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.24

Winner ✓

Edge

-13.3%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +7.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R17W
R18W
R19L
R20L
R21L

older → newer

19.2
Catalans Dragons
R17L
R18L
R19L
R20L
R21L
11.2

Avg Conceded

19.2

Warrington Wolves

29.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

0.0

Warrington Wolves

-18.4

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

964

Warrington Wolves

720

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

3.2

Warrington Wolves

1.6

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
Apr 2026WAR 22 - 38 CAT
Jul 2025WAR 24 - 20 CAT
Mar 2025WAR 18 - 12 CAT
Feb 2024WAR 24 - 32 CAT
May 2024WAR 16 - 8 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1433Overall1299
CAT
ELO difference: +134 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

828Forwards779
Best: 1060WAR +49Best: 1000
757Backs757
Best: 862EvenBest: 859
860Halves1000
Best: 860CAT +140Best: 1000
1302Hooker830
WAR +472

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
19.2pts
Avg Score
11.2pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
29.6pts
0.0pts
Avg Margin
-18.4pts
964.4m
Run Metres
720.4m
3.2
Clean Breaks
1.6
247.0
Tackles
237.2
8.8
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

67%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: +7.4

3/4 match predictions correct