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Super League | Round 22

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • SUNDAY 17 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

524
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 83%

AI Win Probability

83%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

83%

Huddersfield Giants

17%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees St Helens ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 331-point ELO rating advantage (1675 vs 1344). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts St Helens by 11.6 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.10

Winner ✓

Edge

-7.8%

Line / Spread

St Helens +11.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R17W
R18W
R19L
R20W
R21W

older → newer

19.4
Huddersfield Giants
R17W
R18L
R19L
R20W
R21W
19.6

Avg Conceded

5.2

St Helens

21.6

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

14.2

St Helens

-2.0

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

1227

St Helens

920

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

4.0

St Helens

2.8

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
May 2026STH 26 - 18 HUD
May 2025STH 46 - 4 HUD
Feb 2024STH 13 - 12 HUD
Aug 2024STH 18 - 10 HUD
Mar 2024STH 28 - 0 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1675Overall1344
HUD
ELO difference: +331 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

887Forwards753
Best: 1202STH +134Best: 980
1083Backs991
Best: 1329STH +92Best: 1250
1007Halves1001
Best: 1007EvenBest: 1001
1054Hooker872
STH +182

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
HUD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
19.4pts
Avg Score
19.6pts
5.2pts
Avg Conceded
21.6pts
14.2pts
Avg Margin
-2.0pts
1226.8m
Run Metres
919.8m
4.0
Clean Breaks
2.8
274.2
Tackles
244.2
9.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

83%

St Helens predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +11.6

3/4 match predictions correct