# St Helens v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 52 – 4 Huddersfield Giants

_St Helens put Huddersfield Giants to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 83% / Huddersfield Giants 17% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sun, 17 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Mark Percival (9' 1st Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (19' Tipped ⚡), Tristan Sailor (23' Tipped ⚡), Owen Dagnall (26' Tipped ⚡), Jonny Lomax (40'), Morgan Knowles (48'), Mark Percival (54' 1st Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (58' Tipped ⚡), Tristan Sailor (61' Tipped ⚡) · Huddersfield Giants: Joe Greenwood (32')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 83% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.6 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

St Helens 52–4 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 22 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Huddersfield Giants played the tidier footy. Fewer errors, 5 to St Helens' 9, and on another day that discipline wins you the arm wrestle. Instead they lost 52-4, which tells you ball control on its own doesn't count for much if you can't get anywhere with it.

St Helens didn't bother with patience. They ran for 1,533 metres to Huddersfield's 689, busted 46 tackles to 31, and broke the line 11 times against the Giants' 2. That's not a stat battle, that's a different sport being played on the same paddock.

The timeline backs it up. Mark Percival opened the scoring in the 9th minute, and by the 27th it was 24-0, with Kyle Feldt among the try scorers and adding the conversions each time. Joe Greenwood got Huddersfield on the board in the 32nd to make it 24-4, and that's as close as the arithmetic ever got.

St Helens went into the sheds 24-4 up and simply carried on. Jonny Lomax crossed right on the stroke of half-time, Morgan Knowles added one after the break, and then Percival, Feldt and Tristan Sailor all doubled up before it was done. Feldt finished with a try double of his own to go with the goalkicking, and Sailor's second try in the 61st minute put the gloss on a scoreline that had long stopped being a contest.

The positional numbers explain why the gap was this wide rather than a tidy St Helens win. St Helens held the edge in forwards, 887 to 753, backs 1083 to 991, and hooker 1054 to 872, with the halves nearly level at 1007 to 1001. Every one of those edges showed up in the collision, in the metres, in the busted tackles. Huddersfield's cleaner handling never got the chance to matter because they spent the day making tackles instead of breaks.

Form lines suggested this was live. Huddersfield arrived having won three of five, St Helens four of five, and Huddersfield's average points conceded over that stretch, 21.6, was already a concern against a St Helens side leaking just 5.2. Even so, nothing in the recent form flagged a 48-point margin. Huddersfield's average run of 919.8 metres a game barely showed up here at 689, while St Helens' own season average of 1226.8 was blown past at 1,533.

Alphr's model backed St Helens at 83 percent and had the ratings gap right, 1675 to 1344. Where it fell over was the margin, tipped at 11.6 with a combined total of 46. The actual margin was 48, the total was 56. Good read on the winner, hopeless read on how one-sided it would get. That's the ledger for the day: 5 from 15 on this one, wins and misses, all of it.

Huddersfield can point to the error count and say they did their job with the ball. Problem is, you still have to do something with it once you've got it, and on 689 metres against that St Helens pack, there wasn't much on offer. St Helens have built four wins from their last five on exactly this formula: fewer errors don't matter if you can't lay a glove on the space they create.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,533** | Run metres | 689 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **46** | Tackle busts | 31 |
| **10** | Offloads | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | **5** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 8/9 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | 5 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 83% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 48 points. St Helens led 24–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (6/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Huddersfield Giants 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 83.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 12 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 83% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 331 ELO points clear, 1675 to 1344. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Huddersfield Giants.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has St Helens by 11.6, with the two sides combining for about 46. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.4pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 14.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1226.8m | Run Metres | 919.8m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 274.2 | Tackles | 244.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 19.4 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | St Helens | 38 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens 77% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 26 | St Helens | St Helens 67% ✓ |
| 2025 | R12 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 13 – 12 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 18 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.81 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (1.95 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.52 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.43 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.48/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.52/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.81/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.95/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.57/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.52/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 5 | 3 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 72m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 90.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 20 | 24 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 500m/g | 363m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 80.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 4 | 6 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 320m/g | 182m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 93% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Wingers 1.2/g (lg 0.9) +33% · Centres 0.52/g (lg 0.4) +30% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.4) -13% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 13 in 21g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 9/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.71 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 61' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 15 in 12g | 13/10g (1·0·4·0·3·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 5/6g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.09 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.76 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 58' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.94 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.87 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 11/16g | 18/46g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.72 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 54' |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 5/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.86 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.29 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 13/61g | 12% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 7 | Moses Mbye | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/21g | 10/54g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 8/20g | 7/23g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.77 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/53g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 15/43g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 5/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 48' |
| 14 | Jack Welsby | INT | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 6/11g | 34/58g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | James Bell | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/39g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/30g | 4% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 8 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jacob Gagai | WG | 9 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 41% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Taane Milne | CE | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Bibby | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Sam Halsall | WG | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Frawley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Kieran Rush | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Tristan Powell | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 12 | Harry Rushton | 2R | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Oliver Wilson | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty English | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | George King | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1675 · Huddersfield Giants 1344 · ELO difference: 331 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — St Helens predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)