# Salford Red Devils v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 0 – 48 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 42% / Wakefield Trinity 58% · CANCELLED · Sun, 17 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 58% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.7 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Salford Red Devils 0–48 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 22 at CANCELLED. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Salford Red Devils 0, Wakefield Trinity 48. Read that scoreline and it looks like a one-off disaster. It isn't. Salford came into this game conceding 48.4 points a game across their last five outings. Wakefield just handed them the season average, give or take four tenths of a point. This wasn't an aberration, it was the pattern holding.

What makes it stranger is where the two sides sat on paper before kick-off. Salford went in rated higher in forwards, 968 to 730, higher in backs, 1000 to 751, and streets ahead at hooker, 1000 to 600. The only spot Wakefield held an edge was in the halves, 966 to 800. On raw positional strength this should have been a contest, or at worst a manageable loss. Instead it was a 48 point shutout. Whatever was happening in those halves clearly did enough damage to make the rest of the sheet irrelevant.

Alphr's model had Wakefield favourites at 58 percent, expecting them to win by 13.7 with a combined total of 52. The winner call was right. The total wasn't far off either, 52 predicted against 48 actual, within four points. The margin is where it fell over badly, out by more than 34 points. Call it 1 from 15 on this one: right side, right ballpark on points scored, but nowhere near the actual gap between the two teams.

Form lines going in told part of the story. Wakefield had won three of their last five and were averaging 23.8 points a game, with Salford managing just 12.4 and shipping that 48.4 average in defence. Wakefield doubled their own scoring average here. Salford matched theirs to the letter, at the wrong end.

The underlying numbers back it up. Wakefield came in averaging 1210.8 running metres a game to Salford's 626.8, nearly double, and 4.4 clean breaks to 2.4. Add tackle counts of 288.4 to 211.6 and you've got a side built to control the ball and grind out territory against one without the go-forward to live with it. Oddly, it's Salford who came in with the tidier error count, 4.6 to Wakefield's 11.2, which suggests Wakefield's sheer volume of ball in hand was enough to cover their own mistakes and still run away with it.

Salford's last five reads LWLLL. This was simply another L, and a heavy one, sitting right in line with a side that's struggled defensively for a while now. Wakefield's WLWWL run suggested a team capable of good weeks and bad ones, and by the numbers alone, 48 points and a clean sheet, this sits at the sharp end of that stretch.

None of the pre-match data pointed to a margin this big. Salford's edges in forwards, backs and hooker were substantial on paper, and yet none of it showed up on the scoreboard. Wakefield's superiority in the halves, backed by their metres, breaks and tackle numbers, was enough to turn a projected 13.7 point win into a 48 point demolition. The model got the winner right and the total close to right.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.7 but the actual margin was 48 points. Total score prediction of 52 was close to the actual 48, within 4 points. The model went 1/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 57.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 14 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wakefield Trinity are the call at 58%, but Salford Red Devils stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 380 ELO points clear, 1535 to 1155. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 13.7, with the two sides combining for about 52. Lean Wakefield Trinity, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 48.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -36.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.8pts |
| 626.8m | Run Metres | 1210.8m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 211.6 | Tackles | 288.4 |
| 4.6 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 12.4 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R17 W · R18 L · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Salford Red Devils | 16 – 52 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R12 | Wakefield Trinity | 72 – 10 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R23 | Salford Red Devils | 20 – 0 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 32 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R5 | Salford Red Devils | 14 – 13 | Wakefield Trinity |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.38 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.1 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.57 conceded/game). Key man: Walmsley, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.29/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.62/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.43/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.95/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.38/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.57/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 19 | 13 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 96m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 87 | 37 · 41 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 238m/g | 436m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 12/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 28 | 21 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 340m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.2) +45% · Wingers 1.27/g (lg 0.9) +41%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.26) +81% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.19) +58%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CANCELLED. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Darbyshire | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Justin Sangare | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Declan Murphy | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Charlie Glover | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 47% Great value +16.3%; 🎯 First Try $19.41 AI 36% Great value +30.5% | — |
| 6 | Tiaki Chan | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Smith | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Nathan Connell | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Joshua Cartwright | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Finley Yates | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Samuel Hill | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan Ryan | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% Great value +7.5% | — |
| 13 | Ben Forster | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liam Hood | FB | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Caius Faatili | WG | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 3 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 58% Great value +22.0% | — |
| 4 | Isaiah Vagana | CE | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 5 | Ky Rodwell | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Mathieu Cozza | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Matty Storton | HB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Seth Nikotemo | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 9 | Noah High | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Russell | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Jowitt | 2R | 12 in 18g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.70 AI 15% Great value +5.2% | — |
| 12 | Jake Trueman | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Smith | LK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Neil djeukam | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Olly Russell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Walmsley | INT | 10 in 15g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 19% Great value +6.7% | — |
| 17 | Josh Rourke | INT | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.62 AI 62% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1155 · Wakefield Trinity 1535 · ELO difference: 380 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)