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Super League | Round 22

alphr.com.au

CANCELLED • SUNDAY 17 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

048
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 58%

AI Win Probability

58%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Salford Red Devils

42%

Wakefield Trinity

58%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Salford Red Devils are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Wakefield Trinity carry a 380-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1155). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 13.7 points with a combined total of 52.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.73

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity -13.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R17L
R18W
R19L
R20L
R21L

older → newer

12.4
Wakefield Trinity
R17W
R18L
R19W
R20W
R21L
23.8

Avg Conceded

48.4

Salford Red Devils

16.0

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-36.0

Salford Red Devils

7.8

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

627

Salford Red Devils

1211

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

2.4

Salford Red Devils

4.4

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Sep 2025SAL 16 - 52 WAK
May 2025SAL 10 - 72 WAK
Aug 2023SAL 20 - 0 WAK
Jul 2023SAL 6 - 32 WAK
Apr 2023SAL 14 - 13 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1155Overall1535
WAK
ELO difference: -380 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

968Forwards730
Best: 1024SAL +238Best: 991
1000Backs751
Best: 1000SAL +249Best: 852
800Halves966
Best: 800WAK +166Best: 966
1000Hooker600
SAL +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
WAK
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
12.4pts
Avg Score
23.8pts
48.4pts
Avg Conceded
16.0pts
-36.0pts
Avg Margin
7.8pts
626.8m
Run Metres
1210.8m
2.4
Clean Breaks
4.4
211.6
Tackles
288.4
4.6
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

58%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 52 · Line: -13.7

3/4 match predictions correct