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Super League | Round 22

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 16 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1812
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Hull at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%HullFavourite

Hull

75%

Leigh Leopards

25%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. Leigh Leopards are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage, but Hull counter with Forward Pack and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Leigh Leopards carry a 180-point ELO rating advantage (1654 vs 1474). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hull. The margin model predicts Hull by 5.4 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @2.69

Winner ✓

Edge

+37.4%

Line / Spread

Hull +5.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R17L
R18W
R19W
R20L
R21W

older → newer

29.6
Leigh Leopards
R17W
R18W
R19W
R20W
R21L
19.2

Avg Conceded

14.2

Hull

12.0

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

15.4

Hull

7.2

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1200

Hull

1216

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

6.6

Hull

3.6

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-1
May 2026HUL 6 - 42 LEI
May 2025HUL 26 - 12 LEI
Mar 2025HUL 22 - 22 LEI
Feb 2024HUL 4 - 54 LEI
Aug 2024HUL 12 - 42 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1474Overall1654
LEI
ELO difference: -180 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

897Forwards765
Best: 1176HUL +131Best: 893
1245Backs954
Best: 1356HUL +292Best: 1164
1249Halves779
Best: 1249HUL +470Best: 779
1078Hooker600
HUL +478

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
LEI
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
29.6pts
Avg Score
19.2pts
14.2pts
Avg Conceded
12.0pts
15.4pts
Avg Margin
7.2pts
1200.0m
Run Metres
1215.8m
6.6
Clean Breaks
3.6
270.0
Tackles
296.0
9.6
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

75%

Hull predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: +5.4

3/4 match predictions correct