# Hull FC v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 18 – 12 Leigh Leopards

_Hull FC hold off a fast-finishing Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 75% / Leigh Leopards 25% · MKM Stadium · Sat, 16 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Cade Cust (6' 1st), Harvey Barron (23' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (59' Tipped ⚡) · Leigh Leopards: Lachlan Lam (50'), Gareth O'Brien (55')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 75% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Hull FC 18–12 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 22 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC held off Leigh Leopards 18–12 at MKM Stadium. Hull FC led 12–0 at half-time and held on.

Cade Cust opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Cade Cust, Harvey Barron and Lewis Martin; Leigh Leopards scored through Lachlan Lam and Gareth O'Brien.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull FC by 5.4 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 30 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 50. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 5 · Predicted total: 50

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Hull FC | 22 – 32 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 66% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 42 – 6 | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 12 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Hull FC | 22 – 22 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 4 – 54 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.62 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 3rd there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 20 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 6th there (0.81 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.62/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 6th) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.29/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 6th) | 1.38/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.81/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.62/g (def 5th) | 0.95/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 10 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 147m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 34 | 42 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 389m/g | 581m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 20/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.6% | 84.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 6 | 22 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 370m/g | 367m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Fullbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0%
**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 9 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/3g | 10/19g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.88 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 3/17g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.51 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 20 in 21g | 13/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·3·4) | 2/3g | 17/21g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.15 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 6 | Zak Hardaker | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/10g | 16% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 2/20g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Watts | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 1/1g | 3/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.19 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.62 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/45g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Lloyd Kemp | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Eseh | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 10 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.44 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.45 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.54 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 11/17g | 4/3g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.83 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.18 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Ethan O'Neill | INT | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 35% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)