Castleford Tigers
Leeds Rhinos
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
44%
Leeds Rhinos
56%
AI Match Overview
Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 384-point ELO rating advantage (1653 vs 1269). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 9.1 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.15
Winner ✓
Edge
-30.6%
Line / Spread
Leeds Rhinos -9.1 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R17L R18L R19W R20L R21L older → newer | 12.0 |
Leeds Rhinos | R17W R18L R19W R20L R21W | 18.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Castleford Tigers
9.8
Leeds Rhinos
Avg Margin
-17.2
Castleford Tigers
8.6
Leeds Rhinos
Run Metres
915
Castleford Tigers
1311
Leeds Rhinos
Clean Breaks
2.8
Castleford Tigers
4.2
Leeds Rhinos
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -9.1