# Castleford Tigers v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 6 – 64 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over Castleford Tigers._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 44% / Leeds Rhinos 56% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 16 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Jenson Windley (75') · Leeds Rhinos: Harry Newman (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Miller (9' Tipped ⚡), Presley Cassell (18'), Brodie Croft (20'), James Bentley (30'), Ryan Hall (38'), Ash Handley (44'), Ryan Hall (49'), Jake Connor (59'), Brodie Croft (63'), Ash Handley (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 56% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.1 predicted → 58 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Castleford Tigers 6–64 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 22 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers didn't concede a single penalty all afternoon. That's the only line on the sheet that reads well for them, and it wasn't enough to slow anything down.

Everything else went the other way. Leeds Rhinos racked up 1,501 running metres to Castleford's 600, broke the line eight times to one, and posted 48 tackle busts against 13. Castleford actually finished with more errors than their opponents, 8 to 7, despite the discipline being spotless on the penalty count. When you're clean at the ruck but still can't hold the ball or find the line, discipline alone won't save you.

The gap was there in the pre-match numbers too. Leeds came in rated stronger across forwards (921 to 880), backs (838 to 760) and halves, by some distance, 830 to 722. Castleford's form line read LLWLL over their last five, conceding an average of 29.2 points a game. Leeds arrived on the back of WLWLW, scoring 18.4 and leaking under 10. Everything in the pre-match read pointed one way. What nobody predicted was quite how far it would run.

Harry Newman crossed inside four minutes and Jake Connor's boot had it 0-12 by the tenth. Presley Cassell and Brodie Croft stretched it to 0-24 before the half-hour, James Bentley made it 0-30, and Ryan Hall's first try on the stroke of halftime had Leeds at 0-36. Castleford were held scoreless through all of it, and the tries kept landing at almost the exact same rhythm after the break: Ash Handley, then Ryan Hall again, then Handley a second time, then Jake Connor got in on it himself at the 59th minute. Brodie Croft's second try on 63 minutes pushed it to 0-58, and by the time Ash Handley crossed for his second at 72 minutes the score read 0-62. Castleford's only points came from Jenson Windley in the 75th, converted by Chris Atkin, a face-saving try with the game long gone.

Ryan Hall and Ash Handley both crossed twice. Brodie Croft did the same, and Jake Connor added a try of his own to go with what looks like a near flawless night off the tee, kicking conversion after conversion as the margin blew out. Harry Newman's opener set the tone in the fourth minute and Leeds never let up from there.

For Castleford, there's not much to hang a positive story on beyond the zero penalties. Their attack managed one line break the entire game and 13 tackle busts to Leeds' 48, numbers that match a forward pack and halves pairing rated well below their opponents coming in. The form curve pointed to a heavy loss and delivered one heavier than most would have picked.

Alphr's model had Leeds as 56% favourites and got the winner right, but the margin read of 9.1 points wasn't in the same postcode as the actual 58-point gap. A predicted total of 41 points turned into 70. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one lands firmly in the miss column on the numbers, even with the result called correctly.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 600 | Run metres | **1,501** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 13 | Tackle busts | **48** |
| 3 | Offloads | **12** |
| 8 | Errors | **7** |
| **0** | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 11 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 10/11 |
| 0 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.1 but the actual margin was 58 points. The game's 70 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 0 · Leeds Rhinos 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 56.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 9 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 56%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 384 ELO points clear, 1653 to 1269. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 9.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 12.0pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 9.8pts |
| -17.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.6pts |
| 915.2m | Run Metres | 1311.0m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 250.2 | Tackles | 312.0 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 12.0 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R17 W · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 69% ✗ |
| 2026 | R4 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 4 | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos 81% ✓ |
| 2025 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 29 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leeds Rhinos | 38 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 26 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.95/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.62/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.05/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.57/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.81/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.29/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 9 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 101m/g | 130m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 92.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 62 | 39 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 577m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.8% | 85.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 13 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 221m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.4) -8%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.19) +74% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jenson Windley | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.69 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Elliot Wallis | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.69 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 6 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.32 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.57 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Chris Atkin | HB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Cain Robb | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 5 in 21g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.49 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Stimson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.76 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.57 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.46 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 8 in 21g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.32 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/23g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 44' 72' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 38' 49' |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 20' 63' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 8 | Presley Cassell | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 7 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/22g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 6 in 21g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.34 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 17 | Ben Littlewood | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1269 · Leeds Rhinos 1653 · ELO difference: 384 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)