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Super League | Round 21

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FRIDAY 8 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
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WAR

Warrington Wolves

1824
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Warrington Wolves at 64%

AI Win Probability

64%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

64%

Wigan Warriors

36%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Wigan Warriors are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Wigan Warriors carry a 242-point ELO rating advantage (1685 vs 1443). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 9.3 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -9.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R16W
R17W
R18W
R19L
R20L

older → newer

20.4
Wigan Warriors
R16W
R17L
R18W
R19L
R20W
20.8

Avg Conceded

16.4

Warrington Wolves

19.6

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

4.0

Warrington Wolves

1.2

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

958

Warrington Wolves

1111

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

3.6

Warrington Wolves

3.8

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
May 2026WAR 23 - 6 WIG
May 2025WAR 20 - 22 WIG
Mar 2025WAR 24 - 48 WIG
Feb 2024WAR 18 - 19 WIG
Jul 2024WAR 40 - 4 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Wigan Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1685 vs 1443), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.45).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1443Overall1685
WIG
ELO difference: -242 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

884Forwards798
Best: 1154WAR +87Best: 1006
805Backs740
Best: 942WAR +66Best: 833
705Halves907
Best: 705WIG +202Best: 907
600Hooker925
WIG +325

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
WIG
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
20.8pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
19.6pts
4.0pts
Avg Margin
1.2pts
957.8m
Run Metres
1110.6m
3.6
Clean Breaks
3.8
250.0
Tackles
318.0
8.2
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

64%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -9.3

4/4 match predictions correct