# Warrington Wolves v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 18 – 24 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors rally to conquer Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 36% / Wigan Warriors 64% · Fri, 08 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), George Williams (47' Tipped ⚡), Jake Thewlis (78' Tipped ⚡) · Wigan Warriors: Brad O'Neill (18'), Jack Farrimond (43' Tipped ⚡), Liam Farrell (55'), Zach Eckersley (65'), Jack Farrimond (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 64% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Warrington Wolves 18–24 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 21. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time in this one read 8-6 to Warrington Wolves, courtesy of Marc Sneyd's 33rd-minute penalty goal, and the scoreboard suggested a genuine arm-wrestle. Wigan Warriors had actually trailed since the 19th minute, after Josh Thewlis opened the scoring in the 14th and Brad O'Neill's reply five minutes later only pulled them level before Harry Smith's conversion made it 6-6. Nothing in that first 40 hinted at what the second half would do to the shape of the game.

It didn't take long to unravel. Jack Farrimond put Wigan in front for the first time in the 43rd minute, making it 8-10, only for George Williams to hit back four minutes later and hand Warrington the lead again at 12-10. That was as close as it would get. From the 55th minute on, Wigan Warriors ran off four tries in succession without reply: Liam Farrell, then Zach Eckersley in the 65th, then Farrimond's second in the 71st, and suddenly it was 12-24 with the game beyond Warrington's reach. Jake Thewlis crossed in the 78th minute and Sneyd's conversion made the final score 18-24, but by then it was window dressing.

The stat sheet backs up how tight this actually was, even with the scoreline blowing out late. Run metres were close, 1,068 to 1,005 in Wigan's favour, and line breaks were dead level at three apiece. Where the game separated was offloads: seven for Wigan Warriors against three for Warrington Wolves. Wigan went into the match with a big edge in the halves and at hooker on the positional ratings, 907 and 925 versus 705 and 600, and that extra ball-playing polish showed up in exactly the stat you'd expect it to.

Warrington had the discipline edge and then some, conceding just two penalties to Wigan's nine. In a lot of six-point games that's decisive. Here it wasn't enough, because Wigan kept finding tries anyway, five in total through O'Neill, Farrimond's brace, Farrell and Eckersley, against three for Warrington through Josh Thewlis, Williams and Jake Thewlis. Warrington's forward pack carried a stronger rating coming in, 884 to 798, and that showed up in tackle busts too, 23 to 20, but busting a tackle and cashing it in are different jobs. Wigan did the second one better when it mattered.

Form lines suggest this result wasn't a total shock. Wigan's last five games had produced an average margin of just 1.2 points, the mark of a side that grinds every contest to the wire, whichever way it falls. Warrington's average margin over the same stretch sat healthier at 4 points, and their form read WWWLL coming in against Wigan's WLWLW.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors as 64 per cent favourites and picked them to win by 9.3 points on a combined total of 43.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,005 | Run metres | **1,068** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| **23** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| 3 | Offloads | **7** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 2/5 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wigan Warriors by 9.3 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. Wigan Warriors trailed 8–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–24. The model went 7/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (61/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 2 · Wigan Warriors 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 64%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 242 ELO points clear, 1685 to 1443.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Wigan Warriors, which says ELO Difference and Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 957.8m | Run Metres | 1110.6m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 250.0 | Tackles | 318.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L | 20.4 |
| Wigan Warriors | R16 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R10 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 48 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 19 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.1 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.85 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.45 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 8th) | 1.45/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 0.65/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 9th (weak)) | 2.45/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 17 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 108m/g | 143m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 89.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 33 | 62 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 306m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 14 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 269m/g | 363m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.1/g | 10.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.2% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · 2nd Rows 0.3/g (lg 0.25) +20% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at this venue. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefan Ratchford | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 8 in 18g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $25.03 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Zack Gardner | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.70 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.41 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.19 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Walker | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ryan Matterson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 13 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 5/9g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.01 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.39 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 19/15g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Farrimond | HB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.27 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' 71' |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.75 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/21g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.71 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Walters | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1443 · Wigan Warriors 1685 · ELO difference: 242 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)