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Super League | Round 21

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THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • FRIDAY 8 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

434
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 60%

AI Win Probability

60%St HelensFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

40%

St Helens

60%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Wakefield Trinity are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 67-point ELO rating advantage (1639 vs 1572). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.69

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.8%

Line / Spread

St Helens -0.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R16L
R17W
R18L
R19W
R20W

older → newer

25.0
St Helens
R16W
R17W
R18W
R19L
R20W
24.2

Avg Conceded

16.0

Wakefield Trinity

4.4

St Helens

Avg Margin

9.0

Wakefield Trinity

19.8

St Helens

Run Metres

1199

Wakefield Trinity

1267

St Helens

Clean Breaks

4.6

Wakefield Trinity

4.8

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
May 2026WAK 12 - 18 STH
Apr 2025WAK 14 - 26 STH
Mar 2025WAK 6 - 26 STH
Aug 2023WAK 16 - 32 STH
Apr 2023WAK 0 - 38 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1572Overall1639
STH
ELO difference: -67 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

880Forwards856
Best: 1131WAK +24Best: 1002
985Backs1117
Best: 1165STH +132Best: 1242
791Halves825
Best: 791STH +34Best: 825
625Hooker922
STH +297

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
STH
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
25.0pts
Avg Score
24.2pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
4.4pts
9.0pts
Avg Margin
19.8pts
1198.6m
Run Metres
1266.8m
4.6
Clean Breaks
4.8
291.2
Tackles
258.8
10.0
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

60%

St Helens predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: -0.2

3/4 match predictions correct