# Wakefield Trinity v St Helens — Super League Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 4 – 34 St Helens

_St Helens put Wakefield Trinity to the sword._

Half time: 4 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 40% / St Helens 60% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Fri, 08 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Lachlan Walmsley (33' Tipped ⚡) · St Helens: Alex Walmsley (6' 1st), Morgan Knowles (12'), Daryl Clark (25'), Harry Robertson (49' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (70' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 60% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 4–34 St Helens in Super League Round 21 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity walked to the sheds at 20-4 down and nothing that followed gave them a way back. St Helens didn't need to find another gear after the break, they just kept turning the same one, and the final score of 34-4 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium was really just the half-time margin with extra padding.

The damage was mostly done inside the first 26 minutes. Alex Walmsley opened it up in the 6th minute, Morgan Knowles followed at 12, a penalty goal from Kyle Feldt made it 0-14, and Daryl Clark's try in the 25th had St Helens out to 20 before Wakefield had managed a point. Lachlan Walmsley got Wakefield on the board in the 33rd minute, and that was as close as the scoreboard would look all day.

Nothing changed shape after the break. Harry Robertson crossed in the 49th to push it to 24-4, and Kyle Feldt finished the job himself with two late tries either side of the 70th and 77th minutes, adding both conversions along the way for good measure. St Helens didn't so much pull away as keep doing what had already worked.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard was saying. St Helens ran for 1,306 metres to Wakefield's 920, and the gap in line breaks was the story of the afternoon: seven for St Helens against a single one for Wakefield. Thirty-six tackle busts to 25 gave St Helens the go-forward to keep finding those gaps, and with only 7 errors compared to Wakefield's 13, they rarely handed back the ball they'd worked hard to get.

Wakefield's only real point of pride was the penalty count, giving away just 3 to St Helens' 4. Discipline wasn't the problem. Being unable to get a foothold in general play was.

The positional numbers explain plenty. St Helens' hooker rating of 922 against Wakefield's 625 is a gap that shows up directly in a five-try haul including a double to Feldt and scores to Knowles and Clark, the kind of output you'd expect from a stronger spine. The backs matchup, 1117 to 985 in St Helens' favour, showed up in exactly the way you'd expect too, with Feldt doing plenty of the damage out wide.

Form lines pointed this way before kickoff. St Helens arrived on a 4-1 last-five record with an average margin of 19.8 points, while Wakefield's recent form, 3-2 with a much tighter average margin of 9, hinted at a side that could compete but not usually dominate. On the day, St Helens' number was closer to their season average than Wakefield's was to theirs.

Alphr's model had St Helens as 60% favourites and picked the total score almost bang on at 38 against an actual 38. The margin prediction of 0.2 points was the one that let the model down badly, with the actual gap landing at 30. A reminder that picking the right side is only half the job, picking how comfortably is the other half, and this one wasn't close.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 920 | Run metres | **1,306** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 25 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| 13 | Errors | **7** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 5/7 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 13 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 38, within 0 points. St Helens led 4–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 3 · St Helens 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 60.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 0 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 60%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 67 ELO points clear, 1639 to 1572. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 24.2pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 4.4pts |
| 9.0pts | Avg Margin | 19.8pts |
| 1198.6m | Run Metres | 1266.8m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 291.2 | Tackles | 258.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R16 L · R17 W · R18 L · R19 W · R20 W | 25.0 |
| St Helens | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W | 24.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 46 | St Helens | St Helens 52% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | St Helens | 18 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 50% ✗ |
| 2025 | R7 | St Helens | 26 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2023 | R24 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 32 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.1 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.55 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (0.9 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.65/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 5th) | 1.2/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.1/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 5th) | 1.8/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.55/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 5 | 15 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 170m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 91.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 38 | 56 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 440m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 17.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 3 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 346m/g | 322m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.5% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.4) -13% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.2) +50% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 4/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.05 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 5/7g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.15 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 4 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 2/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.56 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/23g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 7 in 20g | 5/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/10g | 23% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/9g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 4/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.21 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 13 in 20g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.16 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.41 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 13 in 11g | 12/10g (1·1·0·4·0·3·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.23 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.80 AI 26% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' 77' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 10 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.68 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/14g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.64 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.70 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Moses Mbye | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/15g | 1/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 12' |
| 14 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1572 · St Helens 1639 · ELO difference: 67 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — St Helens favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)