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Super League | Round 21

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 7 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

1422
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

❌ Upset — model favoured Leigh Leopards at 63%

AI Win Probability

63%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

63%

Leeds Rhinos

37%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Leigh Leopards carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1686 vs 1622). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.75

Lost ✗

Edge

+5.6%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +3.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R16L
R17W
R18W
R19W
R20W

older → newer

22.4
Leeds Rhinos
R16W
R17W
R18L
R19W
R20L
23.6

Avg Conceded

17.2

Leigh Leopards

13.0

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

5.2

Leigh Leopards

10.6

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1246

Leigh Leopards

1351

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

4.6

Leigh Leopards

5.4

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
Mar 2026LEI 26 - 14 LEE
Jun 2025LEI 30 - 48 LEE
Feb 2024LEI 16 - 22 LEE
Jun 2024LEI 10 - 18 LEE
Aug 2023LEI 13 - 6 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1686Overall1622
LEE
ELO difference: +65 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

849Forwards962
Best: 1110LEE +113Best: 1238
938Backs689
Best: 1091LEI +249Best: 748
739Halves863
Best: 739LEE +124Best: 863
675Hooker1152
LEE +476

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
LEE
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
22.4pts
Avg Score
23.6pts
17.2pts
Avg Conceded
13.0pts
5.2pts
Avg Margin
10.6pts
1246.0m
Run Metres
1351.4m
4.6
Clean Breaks
5.4
279.8
Tackles
306.6
9.6
Errors
12.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

63%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.9

0/4 match predictions correct