# Leigh Leopards v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 14 – 22 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos stampede past Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 8 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 63% / Leeds Rhinos 37% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Thu, 07 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Umyla Hanley (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Keanan Brand (14' Tipped ⚡), Keanan Brand (51' Tipped ⚡) · Leeds Rhinos: Lachlan Miller (24' Tipped ⚡), Sam Lisone (34' Tipped ⚡), James Bentley (42'), Brodie Croft (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 63% | Lost |
| Leeds Rhinos | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Leigh Leopards 14–22 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 21 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos went to the break in front 10-8, which on its own tells you nothing about how scrappy the first half actually was. Leigh Leopards had led 8-0 inside 14 minutes, Umyla Hanley opening the scoring in the 9th before Keanan Brand crossed five minutes later. Then Leeds found their groove: Lachlan Miller in the 24th, Sam Lisone in the 34th, Jake Connor's conversion tipping it to 10-8 by half-time. An eight-point swing inside twenty minutes, and Leigh had nothing to show for their fast start but a deficit.

The second half didn't rewrite that story so much as confirm it. James Bentley crossed early in the second stanza to push Leeds out to 16-8, and it looked like it might get away from Leigh entirely. Credit to them for not folding: Keanan Brand's second try in the 51st, converted by Gareth O'Brien, dragged it back to 14-16 and made a genuine contest of it. But Leeds had an answer waiting. Brodie Croft's try in the 75th, with Connor's boot doing its job again, put the result beyond reach at 14-22.

Final score: Leeds Rhinos 22, Leigh Leopards 14. Four different try scorers for Leeds against two players for Leigh, and that's the shape of the whole afternoon really, Leeds finding more ways to cross while Leigh leaned on the same two men.

Look at the stat sheet and the ledger doesn't obviously belong to the winning side. Leigh ran for 944 metres to Leeds' 1,005, close enough. Leigh actually offloaded more, nine to six, and coughed the ball up only eight times against Leeds' twelve. By discipline and ball control alone, Leigh were arguably the tidier outfit. Leeds gave away five fewer penalties too, conceding just one to Leigh's five, so it wasn't a discipline story either.

What decided it was territory when it counted and Leeds' edge up front. Their forwards rated 962 against Leigh's 849 coming in, and 36 tackle busts to 29 suggests that pack did its job on both sides of the ball. The hooker gap was the widest of the lot, 1152 to 675, and a spine that strong tends to find the moments that matter, which is exactly what happened with tries arriving at 24, 34, 42 and 75 minutes, each one landing when Leigh had just started to find some rhythm.

Leigh's backs were the stronger unit on paper, 938 to 689, and it showed in patches, but the halves and hooker gaps in Leeds' favour won the arm wrestle in the middle of the field.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards as 63% favourites, expecting a 3.9-point win off ratings of 1686 to 1622. Leeds turned that on its head, and did it playing largely true to their form line, an average margin of 10.6 over their last five compared to Leigh's 5.2. The model got the tightness of the contest roughly right, an 8-point actual margin against a predicted 3.9, just picked the wrong side of it. That's four from fifteen on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 944 | Run metres | **1,005** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 29 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| **8** | Errors | 12 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/3 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 8 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 63% prediction for Leigh Leopards, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (52/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 5 · Leeds Rhinos 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 62.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leigh Leopards are the call at 63%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 65 ELO points clear, 1686 to 1622. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leeds Rhinos.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Leigh Leopards, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.0pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.6pts |
| 1246.0m | Run Metres | 1351.4m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 279.8 | Tackles | 306.6 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W | 22.4 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R16 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 16 – 20 | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos 64% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | Leigh Leopards 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | R16 | Leeds Rhinos | 48 – 30 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R15 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 10 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.35/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.65/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.45/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 6th) | 1.45/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.85/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 6th) | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 6 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 92.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 27 | 38 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 589m/g | 582m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.1/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.4% | 85.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 12 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 369m/g | 333m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.19) +0% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 5/11g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.34 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 51' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 29% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 9 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/5g | 12/20g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.94 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.91 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 9/16g | 24/30g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.65 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 4/28g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/34g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 3/22g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.83 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 8/29g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 3/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/8g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Robbie Mulhern | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ethan O'Neill | INT | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.96 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.71 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.32 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 8 in 20g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.26 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.17 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 2/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 4/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Andy Ackers | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 17 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1686 · Leeds Rhinos 1622 · ELO difference: 65 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)