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Super League | Round 21

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 10 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

806
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Hull at 81%

AI Win Probability

81%HullFavourite

Hull

81%

Salford Red Devils

19%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Hull ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull carry a 273-point ELO rating advantage (1452 vs 1179). Recent form favours Hull with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Hull by 13.8 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.23

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull +13.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R16L
R17L
R18W
R19W
R20L

older → newer

15.6
Salford Red Devils
R16L
R17L
R18W
R19L
R20L
11.2

Avg Conceded

17.8

Hull

44.0

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

-2.2

Hull

-32.8

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1038

Hull

606

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

3.6

Hull

2.0

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Salford Red Devils lead 4-1
Jun 2025HUL 38 - 6 SAL
Sep 2024HUL 4 - 58 SAL
Jun 2024HUL 20 - 22 SAL
Jun 2023HUL 22 - 29 SAL
Mar 2023HUL 14 - 60 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1452Overall1179
SAL
ELO difference: +273 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

874Forwards831
Best: 1091HUL +42Best: 1049
936Backs930
Best: 1159EvenBest: 1000
728Halves1000
Best: 728SAL +272Best: 1000
600Hooker1000
SAL +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
SAL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
15.6pts
Avg Score
11.2pts
17.8pts
Avg Conceded
44.0pts
-2.2pts
Avg Margin
-32.8pts
1038.0m
Run Metres
606.2m
3.6
Clean Breaks
2.0
306.8
Tackles
221.0
9.6
Errors
5.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Devils
7
H2H History6.0%
Devils

Model Confidence

81%

Hull predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +13.8

3/4 match predictions correct