Hull KR
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Hull KR
85%
Castleford Tigers
15%
AI Match Overview
Hull KR are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 475-point ELO rating advantage (1750 vs 1275). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 15.3 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull KR to Win @1.02
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.3%
Line / Spread
Hull KR +15.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull KR 13-24 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull KR | R16W R17L R18L R19W R20W older → newer | 32.0 |
Castleford Tigers | R16L R17L R18L R19W R20L | 14.8 |
Avg Conceded
14.0
Hull KR
27.2
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
18.0
Hull KR
-12.4
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1327
Hull KR
998
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
6.8
Hull KR
3.4
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Hull KR predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +15.3