# Hull KR v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 36 – 6 Castleford Tigers

_Hull KR outfox Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 85% / Castleford Tigers 15% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 09 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (18' 1st Tipped 🎯), Joe Burgess (24' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jez Litten (35'), Rhyse Martin (50' Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (58' Tipped ⚡), Arthur Mourgue (64'), Joe Burgess (71' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Castleford Tigers: Alex Mellor (29')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 85% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.3 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Hull KR 36–6 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 21 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers had a sniff of it, briefly. Alex Mellor's try in the 29th minute and Daejarn Asi's conversion two minutes later brought them back to 10-6, and for a moment Hull KR's early burst looked like it might have a contest attached to it. It didn't last. Jez Litten crossed in the 35th minute, Arthur Mourgue added the extras, and Hull KR went to the break 16-6 up. Castleford never scored again.

That's the whole story of the second half in one line: nothing. Hull KR ran in five more tries after the break, Rhyse Martin, Mikey Lewis, Mourgue himself, and a third for Joe Burgess to cap it, while Castleford's attack simply stopped functioning. Final score 36-6, and it could have been worse.

Burgess finished with a hat-trick, the first of them opening the scoring in the 18th minute. Mourgue was busy too, a try and four goals, which tells you Hull KR's spine did most of the damage while Castleford's forwards were left chasing shadows.

The gap in the collision stats explains why. Hull KR ran for 1,628 metres to Castleford's 572, a gulf that's hard to overstate. Eight line breaks to one, 28 tackle busts to 15, 10 offloads to four. Castleford simply couldn't get a foothold in the contest, let alone build any pressure of their own.

Oddly enough, Castleford were the tidier side with the ball, 10 errors to Hull KR's 11, and they even shaded the penalty count, three to four. None of it mattered. When one side is generating three times the metres and eight times the line breaks, discipline and ball security are just numbers on a page.

The positional read before kick-off explains a lot of this. Castleford's forward pack rated marginally ahead, 948 to 906, but that edge was never visible on the field. Hull KR's real advantage was out wide and through the middle, backs rated 1275 to 760, halves 1415 to 1003, hooker 1000 to 600. Litten and Lewis and Mourgue pulling the strings against a Castleford spine rated well below them was always going to show up on the scoreboard, and it did.

Form lines pointed the same way. Hull KR arrived averaging 32 points a game and conceding just 14, Castleford limping in on 14.8 scored and 27.2 conceded, a shocking gap that this result did nothing to close. Castleford's WLLWL over their last five suggested a side capable of the odd win but not a full 80 minutes against a team playing at this level, and that's exactly how it played out.

Alphr's model had Hull KR at 85% to win and picked the total at 41, just one point off the actual 42. The margin was where it fell over, tipped at 15.3 and the real gap came in at 30, double the projection. Getting the winner and the total right while missing the margin by that much is a reminder that a lopsided stat sheet like this one can run away from any model's expectations once the floodgates open.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,628** | Run metres | 572 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 15 |
| **10** | Offloads | 4 |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/7 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.3 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. Hull KR led 16–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Hull KR 4 · Castleford Tigers 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 84.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 15 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 85% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 475 ELO points clear, 1750 to 1275. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 15.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Margin | -12.4pts |
| 1327.4m | Run Metres | 998.0m |
| 6.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 283.8 | Tackles | 254.6 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 W | 32.0 |
| Castleford Tigers | R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 44 | Hull KR | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2026 | R10 | Hull KR | 50 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R15 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 48 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Hull KR | 19 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.95 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 9th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.95/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.45/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.25/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 3 | 9 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 103m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 88.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 65 · 20 | 23 · 59 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 604m/g | 372m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.1/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 4 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 300m/g | 228m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 93% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.19) +79% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 12 in 19g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/4g | 9/16g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 67% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 15 in 18g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·2·3·0·0·0·2) | 6/13g | 7/12g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.87 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 12/21g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.58 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | James Batchelor | CE | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 12/30g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 14 in 15g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·2·4) | 14/14g | 15/18g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.22 AI 21% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 18' 24' 71' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 18 in 17g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·2·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/9g | 25/41g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.59 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| 7 | Arthur Mourgue | HB | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 0/9g | 26% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/29g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 1/38g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 6/14g | 2/6g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 4/44g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 6 in 19g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/13g | 6/46g | 18% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 8/23g | 26% | — | — |
| 17 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jenson Windley | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Joshua Hodson | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Louis Senior | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/9g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 6 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.34 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Joe Westerman | HB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Cain Robb | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Stimson | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 13 | George Lawler | LK | 5 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Singleton | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1750 · Castleford Tigers 1275 · ELO difference: 475 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 85%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)