# Hull FC v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 80 – 6 Salford Red Devils

_Hull FC run riot over Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 50 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 81% / Salford Red Devils 19% · MKM Stadium · Sun, 10 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Lewis Martin (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Harvey Barron (7' Tipped ⚡), Jed Cartwright (14' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Barron (17' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (20' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jed Cartwright (22' Tipped ⚡), Davy Litten (25' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (28' 1st Tipped 🎯), Cade Cust (36'), Lewis Martin (44' 1st Tipped 🎯), Herman Ese'ese (48'), Amir Bourouh (53'), Davy Litten (56' Tipped ⚡), Tom Briscoe (64') · Salford Red Devils: Brad Dwyer (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 81% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.8 predicted → 74 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Hull FC 80–6 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 21 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC overran Salford Red Devils 80–6 at MKM Stadium. Leading 50–0 at half-time, Hull FC pulled clear late.

Lewis Martin opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Lewis Martin (4), Harvey Barron (2), Jed Cartwright (2), Davy Litten (2), Cade Cust, Herman Ese'ese, Amir Bourouh and Tom Briscoe; Salford Red Devils scored through Brad Dwyer.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull FC to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.8 but the actual margin was 74 points. The game's 86 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 49. Hull FC led 50–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 74. The model went 6/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 81.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 81.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 13-24 — model probability 81.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 14 · Predicted total: 49

### H2H History (Last 5) — Salford Red Devils lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R15 | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 38 | Hull FC |
| 2024 | R26 | Hull FC | 4 – 58 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R16 | Salford Red Devils | 22 – 20 | Hull FC |
| 2023 | R13 | Salford Red Devils | 29 – 22 | Hull FC |
| 2023 | R4 | Hull FC | 14 – 60 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.4 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 5th there (0.65 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 6th) | 0.3/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 6th) | 0.4/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.95/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.7/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 5th) | 0.4/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.55/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 8 | 3 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 98m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 34 | 11 · 78 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 383m/g | 247m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 84.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 6 | 5 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.25) +80% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.19) +53%
**Who scores on Hull** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Fullbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/18g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.04 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 17' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 2/16g | 24% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/12g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 56' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 16 in 20g | 10/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·3) | 2/3g | 13/20g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.25 AI 23% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' 20' 28' 44' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/9g | 12% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 7 | Zak Hardaker | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/23g | 2/10g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.94 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/19g | 22% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 2% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 10 | Liam Watts | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.61 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.48 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 22' |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Charles | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Eseh | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/6g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.83 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declan Murphy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Samuel Hill | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Thomas Whitehead | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Toby Warren | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Riley Lumb | WG | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 2/1g | 48% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ciaran Nolan | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Connell | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Finley Yates | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Justin Sangare | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Littlewood | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Tiaki Chan | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/13g | 4% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 15 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Makin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)