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Super League | Round 21

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ACCU STADIUM • SATURDAY 9 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
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HUD

Huddersfield Giants

186
CAT

Catalans Dragons

❌ Upset — model favoured Catalans Dragons at 53%

AI Win Probability

53%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

47%

Catalans Dragons

53%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Catalans Dragons a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Huddersfield Giants with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 1.3 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @2.51

Lost ✗

Edge

+12.9%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons -1.3 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R16L
R17W
R18L
R19L
R20W

older → newer

16.0
Catalans Dragons
R16W
R17L
R18L
R19L
R20L
16.4

Avg Conceded

26.8

Huddersfield Giants

26.0

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-10.8

Huddersfield Giants

-9.6

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

811

Huddersfield Giants

755

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

2.4

Huddersfield Giants

2.0

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 5-0
Mar 2026HUD 10 - 26 CAT
Jun 2025HUD 0 - 32 CAT
Apr 2025HUD 18 - 38 CAT
Aug 2024HUD 22 - 23 CAT
Jun 2024HUD 18 - 22 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Catalans Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1330 vs 1314), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.66).

The model sides with ELO, Catalans Dragons predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1314Overall1330
CAT
ELO difference: -15 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

800Forwards780
Best: 1069HUD +20Best: 1000
760Backs673
Best: 867HUD +87Best: 721
800Halves1000
Best: 800CAT +200Best: 1000
602Hooker929
CAT +326

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
16.0pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
26.8pts
Avg Conceded
26.0pts
-10.8pts
Avg Margin
-9.6pts
811.0m
Run Metres
755.0m
2.4
Clean Breaks
2.0
259.8
Tackles
220.8
8.4
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Giants
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

53%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: -1.3

1/4 match predictions correct