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Super League | Round 20

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 25 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

2818
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 87%

AI Win Probability

87%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

87%

Catalans Dragons

13%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 343-point ELO rating advantage (1679 vs 1336). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 14.7 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.08

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.5%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +14.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R15L
R16W
R17L
R18W
R19L

older → newer

17.2
Catalans Dragons
R15L
R16W
R17L
R18L
R19L
15.2

Avg Conceded

19.2

Wigan Warriors

25.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-2.0

Wigan Warriors

-10.4

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1068

Wigan Warriors

734

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

2.8

Wigan Warriors

1.2

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Aug 2025WIG 40 - 4 CAT
May 2025WIG 48 - 0 CAT
Feb 2024WIG 30 - 8 CAT
Aug 2024WIG 26 - 18 CAT
Feb 2023WIG 22 - 46 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1679Overall1336
CAT
ELO difference: +343 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

822Forwards827
Best: 1044EvenBest: 1000
655Backs706
Best: 692CAT +51Best: 776
707Halves800
Best: 707CAT +93Best: 800
971Hooker979
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
17.2pts
Avg Score
15.2pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
25.6pts
-2.0pts
Avg Margin
-10.4pts
1068.0m
Run Metres
734.2m
2.8
Clean Breaks
1.2
327.2
Tackles
221.6
9.2
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

87%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 15 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +14.7

3/4 match predictions correct