# Wigan Warriors v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 28 – 18 Catalans Dragons

_Wigan Warriors go to war with Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 87% / Catalans Dragons 13% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 25 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Jake Wardle (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Farrimond (14' Tipped ⚡), Kruise Leeming (38'), Zach Eckersley (60' Tipped ⚡), Brad O'Neill (75') · Catalans Dragons: Cesar Rouge (55'), Tommy Makinson (67'), Alrix Da Costa (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 87% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Wigan Warriors 28–18 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 20 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen-nil at the break and Catalans Dragons never got within shouting distance until it was too late to matter. Wigan Warriors put this one away early and spent the second half fending off a fightback that arrived a lot later than it needed to.

The gap opened fast. Jake Wardle scored inside seven minutes, Jack Farrimond followed a week later in game time to make it 8-0, and by the 16th minute Harry Smith's boot had it at 10-0. Kruise Leeming crossed right on the stroke of half-time, and suddenly Catalans were staring at a 16-0 deficit with nothing on the board and not much to show for the first forty.

Catalans finally found the tryline through Cesar Rouge in the 55th minute, and for a moment it looked like the start of something. It wasn't. Wigan answered within five minutes through Zach Eckersley, pushing it back out to 22-6, and every time Catalans clawed a score back, Wigan had one waiting. Tommy Makinson got the Dragons to 22-12, Brad O'Neill made it 28-12, and Alrix Da Costa's try in the 79th minute was just a scoreline flourish. Four tries in the last 24 minutes, split two apiece, but it was academic by then.

The run metres tell you where the platform came from: 1,168 to 755 in Wigan's favour, a gap of over 400 metres that let them keep going forward while Catalans were stuck defending their own end. Wigan also broke the line six times to four, and while Catalans actually posted more tackle busts, 36 to 27, it never translated into enough line breaks or points to matter until the game was already decided.

Discipline and ball control tell a different story, and it's not one Wigan will love. Catalans conceded zero penalties to Wigan's four, and were the tidier side with ball in hand too, just 9 errors to Wigan's 12. Cleaner footy, fewer sin-bin moments, none of it mattered next to a 16-point start Wigan built before Catalans had even opened their account.

Go back to the pre-match numbers and this had the shape of a form-versus-quality contest. Catalans came in rating higher across forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and their halves edge in particular, 800 to 707, promised more control. Instead it was Wigan's recent trend that showed up on the park: they'd been averaging 1,068 running metres a game over their last five to Catalans' 734, and that gap turned up almost exactly in this scoreline.

Alphr's model had Wigan at 87 percent to win, expecting a margin of 14.7 and a combined total of 43. The actual margin was 10, the total 46. Close enough to call it a good read, not close enough to call it precise, and it landed inside a 5 from 15 stretch on this match that's more miss than hit right now.

Catalans will look at the ball control and discipline numbers and wonder how they still lost by ten. The honest answer is they spent too long chasing a scoreboard that had already got away from them by half-time.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,168** | Run metres | 755 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **0** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 0 |
| 12 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 87% probability. The predicted margin of 14.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (52/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 4 · Catalans Dragons 0.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 87.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 15 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 87% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 343 ELO points clear, 1679 to 1336. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 14.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | -10.4pts |
| 1068.0m | Run Metres | 734.2m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 1.2 |
| 327.2 | Tackles | 221.6 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 L | 17.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 50 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 16 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 48 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 8 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.37 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (2.05 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.74 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (0.84 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 7th) | 0.26/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.37/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.74/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.05/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.16/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.37/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 4 | 2 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 32m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 19 | 14 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 359m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 86.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 2 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 368m/g | 173m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Eckersley | FB | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/19g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.10 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 5/18g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.93 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 12 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/12g | 19/37g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.54 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.01 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 45/57g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.06 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 12/58g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Farrimond | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.27 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.07 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/32g | 6% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 3/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 6/28g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 21/56g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.92 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/42g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Byrne | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/54g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 4/21g | 18% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/24g | 4% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 3 | Leo Darrelatour | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 4 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 8 | Tariq Sims | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1679 · Catalans Dragons 1336 · ELO difference: 343 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)