Skip to main content

Super League | Round 20

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • THURSDAY 24 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1514
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 61%

AI Win Probability

61%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

61%

Leeds Rhinos

39%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 39%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Leeds Rhinos carry a 102-point ELO rating advantage (1648 vs 1546).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @2.35

Winner ✓

Edge

+18.9%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +0.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R15W
R16L
R17W
R18L
R19W

older → newer

25.2
Leeds Rhinos
R15L
R16W
R17W
R18L
R19W
21.6

Avg Conceded

15.2

Wakefield Trinity

13.6

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

10.0

Wakefield Trinity

8.0

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1164

Wakefield Trinity

1325

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

4.6

Wakefield Trinity

5.2

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
May 2026WAK 22 - 40 LEE
Jun 2025WAK 18 - 22 LEE
Mar 2025WAK 14 - 12 LEE
Jun 2023WAK 24 - 14 LEE
Mar 2023WAK 0 - 26 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1546Overall1648
LEE
ELO difference: -102 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

899Forwards872
Best: 1224WAK +28Best: 1149
1132Backs979
Best: 1272WAK +153Best: 1208
990Halves1130
Best: 990LEE +140Best: 1130
600Hooker1026
LEE +426

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
LEE
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
25.2pts
Avg Score
21.6pts
15.2pts
Avg Conceded
13.6pts
10.0pts
Avg Margin
8.0pts
1164.0m
Run Metres
1325.0m
4.6
Clean Breaks
5.2
286.8
Tackles
296.8
9.6
Errors
13.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

61%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: +0.4

3/4 match predictions correct