# Wakefield Trinity v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 15 – 14 Leeds Rhinos

_Wakefield Trinity pip Leeds Rhinos by a point._

Half time: 8 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 61% / Leeds Rhinos 39% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Thu, 24 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Lachlan Walmsley (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Matty Storton (71') · Leeds Rhinos: Sam Lisone (37'), Jarrod O'Connor (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 61% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 15–14 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 20 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three penalties conceded to Leeds Rhinos' five, and that gap is worth about as much as the final scoreline: Wakefield Trinity 15, Leeds Rhinos 14. Max Jowitt made Wakefield pay for it directly, slotting penalty goals in the 10th and 28th minutes that put Wakefield 8-2 up before Leeds had scored a try. In a game decided by one point, discipline wasn't a footnote, it was the story.

The scoreboard was locked at 8-8 by the break, Sam Lisone's try and Jake Connor's conversion in the 37th and 38th minutes squaring things up right on the stroke of half-time after Wakefield had led throughout the first half. That's a game that could have gone either way, and for a long stretch of the second half it looked like Leeds might have taken it. Jarrod O'Connor crossed in the 66th minute and Jack Sinfield's conversion had Leeds up 14-8, their first lead of the match.

Wakefield had an answer. Matty Storton scored in the 71st minute and Jowitt's conversion two minutes later tied it at 14-14, and that was as good as it got for either side, Wakefield's earlier penalty goals the difference in a match with next to nothing in it.

Look at the shape of the stats and it's not hard to see how Wakefield stayed in front on the sheet without dominating the game. They ran for 1,243 metres to Leeds' 1,208, and broke the line three times to two, modest edges but real ones. Leeds actually won the collision battle in other areas, 39 tackle busts to 28 and 11 offloads to 6, numbers that speak to a Leeds forward pack getting go-forward and quick play the ball. It just didn't turn into enough points where it mattered.

That tracks with the positional read going in. Wakefield held the edge in the backs, 1132 to 979, and that showed in the tries and the discipline that kept Jowitt's boot busy. Leeds had the stronger halves, 1130 to 990, and a big edge at hooker, 1026 to 600, which lines up with the shape of their attack even if it didn't translate to enough tries.

Neither side arrived out of form. Wakefield's last five reads WLWLW, Leeds LWWLW, both sides with three wins from five. Leeds actually carry the better raw output over that stretch, more run metres per game, more clean breaks, more tackles made, but also more errors, 13.4 a game against Wakefield's 9.6. On the day both sides finished level on errors at eight apiece, so it came down to the penalty count instead.

Alphr's model had Wakefield as 61% favourites and picked the margin at 0.4 points in Wakefield's favour. The actual result: Wakefield by 1. That's about as close as a pre-match number gets to the final whistle, and the model landed the correct margin band on top of it. Not every call goes that well, this one did.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| **1,243** | Run metres | 1,208 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **39** |
| 6 | Offloads | **11** |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 61% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 0.4 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (42/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 3 · Leeds Rhinos 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 61.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 0 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wakefield Trinity are the call at 61%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 39%. The ratings say otherwise: Leeds Rhinos sit 102 ELO points clear, 1648 to 1546, so the model is backing Wakefield Trinity against the ratings gap.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Lean Wakefield Trinity, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1164.0m | Run Metres | 1325.0m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 286.8 | Tackles | 296.8 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 13.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 L · R19 W | 25.2 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wakefield Trinity | 22 – 24 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2026 | R10 | Leeds Rhinos | 40 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 18 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 24 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.16 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.84 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.68/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 5th) | 0.68/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.74/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.16/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 5th) | 1.42/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.84/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.47/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.37/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 4 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 95m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 92.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 38 | 38 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 437m/g | 583m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.1/g | 18.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 85.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 3 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 343m/g | 332m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.8% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.19) +58% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Wingers 1.28/g (lg 0.88) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 12 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 7/9g | 4/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.85 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 8 in 13g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.85 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 2/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.77 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/22g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 7 in 19g | 7/10g (2·2·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/9g | 28% | — | — |
| 11 | Cameron Scott | 2R | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 2/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/17g | 4/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.95 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Rourke | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/7g | 27% | — | — |
| 15 | Seth Nikotemo | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Storton | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 71' |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.52 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.94 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.73 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.45 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 8 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.29 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.34 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/17g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 7 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 16 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Littlewood | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1546 · Leeds Rhinos 1648 · ELO difference: 102 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Wakefield Trinity favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)