St Helens
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
St Helens
76%
Castleford Tigers
24%
AI Match Overview
St Helens are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 340-point ELO rating advantage (1627 vs 1288). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts St Helens by 11.0 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
-17.9%
Line / Spread
St Helens +11 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | R15W R16W R17W R18W R19L older → newer | 19.8 |
Castleford Tigers | R15L R16L R17L R18L R19W | 14.8 |
Avg Conceded
5.2
St Helens
28.8
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
14.6
St Helens
-14.0
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1170
St Helens
1059
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
4.6
St Helens
3.8
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
St Helens predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: +11.0