# St Helens v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 40 – 0 Castleford Tigers

_St Helens run riot over Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 76% / Castleford Tigers 24% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 01 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Mark Percival (5' 1st), Owen Dagnall (9' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (20' Tipped ⚡), Daryl Clark (28'), Harry Robertson (36' Tipped ⚡), Owen Dagnall (67' Tipped ⚡), Tristan Sailor (70' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 76% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

St Helens 40–0 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 20 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens put 40 on Castleford Tigers without reply at The BrewDog Stadium, and the shape of it undersells the gap. St Helens ran for 1,466 metres to Castleford's 682, more than double, and that's before you get to the six line breaks St Helens made against precisely none from the visitors. This wasn't a scoreline that flattered one side. If anything it was generous to Castleford.

The damage was done early and often. Mark Percival opened it inside five minutes, Owen Dagnall followed four minutes later, and by the 21st minute Kyle Feldt had crossed and converted to make it 16-0. Daryl Clark got the fourth just before the half-hour, Harry Robertson the fifth right on the stroke of half-time, and St Helens went to the sheds 28-0 up. Castleford hadn't laid a glove on the board.

The second half was largely about margin management from there. Dagnall grabbed his second in the 67th minute, Tristan Sailor added a seventh try three minutes later, and Feldt slotted his fifth conversion to round it out at 40-0. Feldt's night summed up in numbers alone: a try and five successful kicks, involved in more than half the points on the board.

Castleford's line speaks to where this was lost. Just two penalties conceded, actually the tidier figure of the two sides on that count, and only 8 errors to St Helens' 13. On another day those numbers might have kept them in the fight. Instead they managed 20 tackle busts to St Helens' 31 and never turned any of it into pressure that mattered, because without go-forward none of it counts for much.

The pre-match read had St Helens as favourites at 76 percent, with an expected win by 11 points and a combined total near 49. The head of the market got it right. The margin did not. Forty points is closer to four times the predicted gap than anything the model had planned for, and the final total landed at 40 rather than anywhere near 49, all one-way traffic.

There's a case in the form lines for why this went further than expected. St Helens arrived at 19.8 points scored and just 5.2 conceded across their last five, with Castleford leaking 28.8 a game over the same stretch. Multiply those tendencies together and 40-0 stops looking like an outlier and starts looking like the ceiling. Castleford's WWWWL-to-LLLLW turnaround suggested some recent improvement, but a lone win before this doesn't undo four losses, and it showed.

Where St Helens really won that ratings battle was up front and in the middle, forwards rated 931 to 871 and a hooker edge of 600 that on paper looked soft against Castleford's 1,239. It wasn't soft on the night. Castleford held the nominal advantage in halves and backs on paper, 938 to 817 and 867 to 828, but none of that translated once St Helens started running the ball back at them from deep and racking up breaks nobody could stop.

Alphr's model went 5 from 15 on the round. Right about the winner, wrong about how far they'd win by. That's the game sometimes: pick the horse, miss the distance by 29 points.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,466** | Run metres | 682 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| **6** | Offloads | 4 |
| 13 | Errors | **8** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 0 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 13 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.0 but the actual margin was 40 points. St Helens led 28–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties St Helens 1 · Castleford Tigers 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 76.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 11 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 76% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 340 ELO points clear, 1627 to 1288. Form leans St Helens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 49. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 14.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.0pts |
| 1169.6m | Run Metres | 1059.2m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 266.0 | Tackles | 264.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L | 19.8 |
| Castleford Tigers | R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 10 | St Helens | St Helens 67% ✗ |
| 2025 | R27 | St Helens | 26 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 60 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.37 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.05 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.47 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.47/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.05/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.26/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.16/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.42/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.26/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 5 | 9 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 102m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 19 | 23 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 475m/g | 380m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.6/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 82.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 320m/g | 232m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.19) +74% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/8g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.61 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.47 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·4·0·3·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/5g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.10 AI 28% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 9 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 4/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.53 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/18g | 17/45g | 22% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.38 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.86 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 67' |
| 6 | Moses Mbye | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 13/60g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 10/53g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/24g | 6/22g | 16% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/52g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/33g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 5/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/38g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/29g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jake Burns | INT | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/6g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Andy Djeukessi | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Chris Atkin | 5/8 | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 6 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.37 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.91 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | George Lawler | HK | 5 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/13g | 0/5g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.98 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.20 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Stimson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Wood | INT | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1627 · Castleford Tigers 1288 · ELO difference: 340 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — St Helens predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r20-st-helens-v-castleford-tigers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)