# Salford Red Devils v Hull KR — Super League Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 12 – 74 Hull KR

_Hull KR put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 23% / Hull KR 77% · Salford Community Stadium · Thu, 31 July, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Justin Sangare (24'), Charlie Glover (71') · Hull KR: Tom Davies (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Broadbent (2' Tipped ⚡), Sauaso Sue (9'), Joe Burgess (28' Tipped ⚡), Rhyse Martin (33' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (36'), Joe Burgess (38' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (43' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (46' Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (51' Tipped ⚡), Arthur Mourgue (54'), Tom Davies (58' 1st Tipped 🎯), Rhyse Martin (74' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 77% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.2 predicted → 62 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Salford Red Devils 12–74 Hull KR in Super League Round 20 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR beat Salford Red Devils 74-12 at Salford Community Stadium, and if anything the scoreline flatters the home side. Salford ran for 338 metres all night. Hull KR ran for 1,467. That's not a margin, that's a different sport.

Joe Burgess crossed four times, Rhyse Martin and Jez Litten twice each, and Tom Davies opened the scoring inside the first minute before adding two more later. Salford's reply was two tries, Justin Sangare and Charlie Glover, either side of long stretches where Hull KR simply didn't stop scoring.

The timeline tells you how one-sided it got. Davies in at 1 minute, Jack Broadbent at 2, Sauaso Sue at 9, and it was 0-14 before Salford had touched the ball in anger. Sangare got them on the board in the 24th minute and Kai Morgan's conversion made it 6-14, briefly respectable. Then Hull KR scored five tries in a 21-minute stretch from the 28th to the 51st, Burgess alone crossing three times in that span, and the contest was over well before half-time's 34-6.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye would have seen. Hull KR broke the line 14 times to Salford's 1, busted 33 tackles to 20, and offloaded six times to one. Salford actually held the discipline edge on paper, just 2 errors to Hull KR's 7, but it didn't matter when you can't get out of your own half. Penalties were even at 3 apiece, which tells you this wasn't decided by the whistle.

None of it should come as a shock given the form both sides brought in. Hull KR arrived on three wins from five, averaging 26.8 points a game and conceding just 11.6. Salford had one win from five, shipping 36.8 a game on average. Add in the positional numbers, Hull KR rated stronger in every category bar halves, forwards 887 to 799, backs 1082 to 1000, hooker 1000 to 921, and this had the shape of a mismatch before kick-off.

Alphr's model saw the win coming, tipping Hull KR at 77% and getting the result right. Where it fell over was the size of it. The pre-match read had Hull KR by 13.2 points on a combined total of 44. The actual margin was 62, and the game produced 86 points, 42 more than forecast. Salford's own second-half tries, Glover's in the 71st minute among them, came only after Hull KR had long since taken their foot off the throat, and even then Rhyse Martin and Litten squeezed in two more late tries to push the final gap out past anything the numbers had flagged.

Salford will look at the 2 errors and wonder how they still shipped 74 points. The answer is in the run metres and line breaks, they simply couldn't get their hands on the ball often enough to matter. Hull KR, form and ratings both pointing their way, did exactly what the market expected, just at a scale nobody had pencilled in.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 338 | Run metres | **1,467** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **14** |
| 20 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 1 | Offloads | **6** |
| **2** | Errors | 7 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 14 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 9/14 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 2 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.2 but the actual margin was 62 points. The game's 86 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 44. Hull KR led 6–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 62. The model went 7/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 3 · Hull KR 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 76.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 13 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 77% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 560 ELO points clear, 1745 to 1184. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 13.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 10.0pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 36.8pts | Avg Conceded | 11.6pts |
| -26.8pts | Avg Margin | 15.2pts |
| 608.8m | Run Metres | 1405.2m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 227.8 | Tackles | 300.8 |
| 5.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W · R19 L | 10.0 |
| Hull KR | R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R10 | Hull KR | 54 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2025 | R3 | Hull KR | 42 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R24 | Hull KR | 32 – 12 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R3 | Salford Red Devils | 17 – 10 | Hull KR |
| 2023 | — | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 16 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.42 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.47 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.58 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.32/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.68/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.37/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.84/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2.32/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.42/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.58/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.47/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 16 | 23 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 103m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 70 | 57 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 260m/g | 603m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 22 | 12 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 298m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.25) -8% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.25) +72% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declan Murphy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Thomas Whitehead | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Toby Warren | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Hill | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ryan Brierley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Kai Morgan | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Mellor | HK | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Tiaki Chan | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Charlie Glover | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 71' |
| 15 | Finley Yates | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/7g | 2% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 17 | Ethan Ryan | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 13 in 17g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·3·0·0·0) | 9/14g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.40 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' 58' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.66 AI 61% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 11 in 18g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0·0·2) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.16 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 38' 43' 46' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 17 in 16g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·2·2·0·1·0·2) | 5/9g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.10 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.24 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 74' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 63% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 36' 77' |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1184 · Hull KR 1745 · ELO difference: 560 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)