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Super League | Round 20

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SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 31 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

1274
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 77%

AI Win Probability

77%Hull KRFavourite

Salford Red Devils

23%

Hull KR

77%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 560-point ELO rating advantage (1745 vs 1184). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 13.2 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.01

Winner ✓

Edge

-22.2%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -13.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R15L
R16L
R17L
R18W
R19L

older → newer

10.0
Hull KR
R15W
R16W
R17L
R18L
R19W
26.8

Avg Conceded

36.8

Salford Red Devils

11.6

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-26.8

Salford Red Devils

15.2

Hull KR

Run Metres

609

Salford Red Devils

1405

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

2.2

Salford Red Devils

6.2

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
May 2025SAL 0 - 54 HKR
Mar 2025SAL 0 - 42 HKR
Aug 2024SAL 12 - 32 HKR
Mar 2024SAL 17 - 10 HKR
Feb 2023SAL 26 - 16 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1184Overall1745
HKR
ELO difference: -560 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

799Forwards887
Best: 1000HKR +88Best: 1130
1000Backs1082
Best: 1000HKR +82Best: 1367
1000Halves969
Best: 1000SAL +31Best: 969
921Hooker1000
HKR +79

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
HKR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
10.0pts
Avg Score
26.8pts
36.8pts
Avg Conceded
11.6pts
-26.8pts
Avg Margin
15.2pts
608.8m
Run Metres
1405.2m
2.2
Clean Breaks
6.2
227.8
Tackles
300.8
5.4
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

77%

Hull KR predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -13.2

3/4 match predictions correct