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Super League | Round 20

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 1 AUG, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEI

Leigh Leopards

2016
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

75%

Warrington Wolves

25%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Leigh Leopards carry a 223-point ELO rating advantage (1677 vs 1453). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 15.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.52

Winner ✓

Edge

+9.2%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +15.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R15W
R16L
R17W
R18W
R19W

older → newer

23.6
Warrington Wolves
R15L
R16W
R17W
R18W
R19L
20.4

Avg Conceded

16.4

Leigh Leopards

17.2

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

7.2

Leigh Leopards

3.2

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1212

Leigh Leopards

976

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

4.6

Leigh Leopards

3.6

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Apr 2026LEI 6 - 42 WAR
Sep 2025LEI 34 - 12 WAR
Apr 2025LEI 18 - 14 WAR
Feb 2024LEI 14 - 16 WAR
Aug 2024LEI 16 - 12 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1677Overall1453
WAR
ELO difference: +223 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

821Forwards999
Best: 1065WAR +178Best: 1282
876Backs844
Best: 986LEI +32Best: 941
871Halves768
Best: 871LEI +103Best: 768
934Hooker624
LEI +311

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
WAR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
23.6pts
Avg Score
20.4pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
17.2pts
7.2pts
Avg Margin
3.2pts
1211.8m
Run Metres
976.0m
4.6
Clean Breaks
3.6
272.4
Tackles
273.2
8.6
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

75%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 16 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +15.7

2/4 match predictions correct