# Leigh Leopards v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 20 – 16 Warrington Wolves

_Leigh Leopards rally to pounce on Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 2 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 75% / Warrington Wolves 25% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 01 Aug, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Umyla Hanley (66'), Umyla Hanley (73'), Owen Trout (76' Tipped ⚡) · Warrington Wolves: Matthew Dufty (30' 1st), Jake Thewlis (49' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 75% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:16 pm_

Leigh Leopards 20–16 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 20 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six line breaks to two. That's the number that explains how Leigh Leopards were down 16 points to nothing on the back of Warrington's start and still walked away 20-16 winners at Progress with Unity Stadium.

Warrington did everything right early. Marc Sneyd landed a penalty in the 19th minute, Matthew Dufty crossed in the 30th and Sneyd's boot made it 2-8 by half-time. That scoreline held up as a fair reflection of a first half where Warrington's forward pack, rated 999 against Leigh's 821 coming in, was doing the heavy lifting. Then Jake Thewlis scored in the 49th and Sneyd added another penalty in the 48th and 70th, and by the 70-minute mark Warrington led 16-8. On paper, job done.

Except Leigh had been quietly winning the collision all night. 1,276 run metres to 905 is not a marginal edge, it's a gulf, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: 40 tackle busts to 28, 10 offloads to 8. Warrington were making tackles, plenty of them, but they were making a lot more of them than they wanted to, because Leigh kept getting quick play-the-balls and second efforts. Errors were dead level at 10 apiece, so it wasn't ill-discipline with ball in hand that turned this. It was field position, built metre by metre.

The penalty count tells its own story too. Warrington conceded just once all match to Leigh's four, and by most logic that should have been enough to see a side home. Instead Leigh's line-break count, six to two, turned into points precisely when it mattered. Umyla Hanley crossed in the 66th minute to open the door, Gareth O'Brien's conversion made it 8-14, and from there Warrington's 16-8 buffer was gone before they'd had time to enjoy it.

What followed was as tight as the ledger suggests. Sneyd's third penalty in the 70th nudged Warrington back to 16-8, but Hanley struck again in the 73rd for his second try, O'Brien converted, and Owen Trout finished it in the 76th. O'Brien's conversion in the 78th made it 20-16 and there wasn't enough clock left for Warrington to answer.

Leigh's halves and hooker ratings, 871 and 934 against Warrington's 768 and 624, look a lot more relevant in hindsight than they did at kick-off, given how the contest was actually decided in the ruck and around the play-the-ball rather than in the forwards. Warrington's pack advantage won them territory early. It didn't win them the back third of the game.

Alphr's model had Leigh at 75% to win, expected them by 15.7 points on a combined total of 41. The final was a 4-point margin on a total of 36, so the model's total was within five and the direction was right, even if the margin blew out both ways before Leigh found it late. Three from fifteen isn't a number to boast about, but the read on this one, backing the side with the better carrying game, held up when it counted.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,276** | Run metres | 905 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **40** | Tackle busts | 28 |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 15.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 36, within 5 points. Leigh Leopards trailed 2–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (53/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 4 · Warrington Wolves 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 74.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 16 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 75% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 223 ELO points clear, 1677 to 1453. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Warrington Wolves.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 15.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 1211.8m | Run Metres | 976.0m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 272.4 | Tackles | 273.2 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 23.6 |
| Warrington Wolves | R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 57% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 42 – 6 | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.05 conceded/game). Key man: Niu, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 4th there (0.74 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.89/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.47/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 7th) | 0.68/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.95/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.74/g (def 6th) | 0.89/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 109m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 89.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 26 | 37 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 584m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.7/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 78.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 12 | 4 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 367m/g | 262m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · 2nd Rows 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.19) +5% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/10g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.44 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.37 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 10/19g | 26% | — | 🏉 66' 73' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 6/8g | 24/29g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.48 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 7/33g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 4/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 4 in 19g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/21g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.45 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/28g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.86 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.28 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 4/20g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben McNamara | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Andrew Badrock | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.81 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 30' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 8 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.02 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 2/4g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.97 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $24.13 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Walker | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ryan Matterson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1677 · Warrington Wolves 1453 · ELO difference: 223 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:16 UTC (latest tip update)