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Super League | Round 20

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • SATURDAY 26 JULY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1430
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 80%

AI Win Probability

80%HullFavourite

Hull

80%

Huddersfield Giants

20%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees Hull ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Hull carry a 244-point ELO rating advantage (1505 vs 1262). Recent form favours Hull with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Hull by 3.4 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.21

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.0%

Line / Spread

Hull +3.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R15W
R16L
R17L
R18W
R19W

older → newer

20.4
Huddersfield Giants
R15W
R16L
R17W
R18L
R19L
14.8

Avg Conceded

13.0

Hull

27.2

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

7.4

Hull

-12.4

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

1020

Hull

888

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

4.4

Hull

2.2

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1
May 2025HUL 10 - 12 HUD
Mar 2025HUL 11 - 10 HUD
Feb 2024HUL 22 - 56 HUD
Feb 2024HUL 18 - 24 HUD
Sep 2023HUL 20 - 52 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1505Overall1262
HUD
ELO difference: +244 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

928Forwards752
Best: 1347HUL +176Best: 937
789Backs813
Best: 914HUD +25Best: 904
1013Halves1000
Best: 1013HUL +13Best: 1000
883Hooker625
HUL +258

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
HUD
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
14.8pts
13.0pts
Avg Conceded
27.2pts
7.4pts
Avg Margin
-12.4pts
1019.8m
Run Metres
888.2m
4.4
Clean Breaks
2.2
297.4
Tackles
266.2
9.6
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Giants
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

80%

Hull predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +3.4

1/4 match predictions correct